The PJ Tatler

It's No Time to Get Cocky, But Abbott Leads Davis by Double Digits in Texas Gov Race

So it turns out that filibustering again a popular bill and being an ethically challenged leftist aren’t enough to get any traction in Texas. Who knew? Other than everyone who knows anything about Texas, that is…

PPP’s newest Texas poll finds Republicans leading by double digits in all of the state’s major races for 2014.

In the Governor’s race Greg Abbott’s at 51% to 37% for Wendy Davis. Those numbers are largely unchanged from our last poll of the state in early November when Abbott had a 50/35 advantage. Davis had a 39/29 favorability rating right after her famous filibuster last June, but since then voters in the state have mostly moved toward having negative opinions about her and now she’s at a 33/47 spread. Davis’ name recognition is actually 12 points higher than Abbott’s, but his reviews break down favorably with 40% having a positive view of him to 27% with a negative one.

Democrats aren’t doing any better below the governor level.

There’s been some thought that Democratic prospects might be better in the race for Lieutenant Governor but Leticia Van de Putte actually trails by slightly more than Davis, regardless of who her Republican opponent ends up being. Dan Patrick leads her by 16 points at 51/35 and incumbent David Dewhurst leads her by 18 points at 50/32. Even with a divisive Republican nomination fight between Patrick and Dewhurst there doesn’t appear to be much risk of the party failing to unify before the fall- they lead 83/9 and 82/5 respectively with GOP voters in the general election.

I’d put that risk around zero. If Dewhurst is the nominee, he will win the general. If Patrick is the nominee, he will win the general.