Surprised by how tough this winter has been? You’re in good company: Last fall the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that temperatures would be above normal from November through January across much of the Lower 48 states. This graphic shows [below] just how wrong the official forecast of the U.S. government was:
The big red blotch in the top map represents parts of the country in which the Climate Prediction Center forecast above-average temperatures. The frigid-looking blue blotch in the bottom “verification” map shows areas where temperatures turned out to be below average.
“Not one of our better forecasts,” admits Mike Halpert, the Climate Prediction Center’s acting director.
No, I suppose it wasn’t.
Here’s the mapset they’re referring to, by the way. The blotches look nothing alike, because the forecasters got it all wrong.
As this was a three-month forecast, it’s not the worst analog you could have when assessing how accurate longer-range forecasts might be.
Anyone with any sense at all knows that climate =/= weather. They’re related but they’re not the same thing. (I know, 25% of Americans don’t know that the earth orbits the sun, which is unspeakably disheartening to someone like me who once worked for NASA communicating high-level astronomy to the media and the public. We failed. I’m sorry. But the high-dollar educational establishment failed worse, and for longer, and at a higher overall cost to you, dear taxpayer.) So it’s always puzzling, and by puzzling I actually mean perfectly obvious, why propagandists like Al Gore resort to disastrous weather to amp up their extreme claims about climate. They’re dishonest and they’re trying to pull one over on the low-info folks out there while also trying to intimidate everyone who dares disagree. The pity is that sometimes they succeed, when they ought to be shunned from polite society.
It’s also hilarious when he runs around scaremongering about global warming while there’s a blizzard going on outside. Climate =/= weather, but funny is funny.