Comforting: 95% Of Climate Models Used To Base Policy Decisions On Are Wrong

The science is…nonexistent.

I’m seeing a lot of wrangling over the recent (15+ year) pause in global average warming…when did it start, is it a full pause, shouldn’t we be taking the longer view, etc.

These are all interesting exercises, but they miss the most important point: the climate models that governments base policy decisions on have failed miserably.

I’ve updated our comparison of 90 climate models versus observations for global average surface temperatures through 2013, and we still see that >95% of the models have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether we use their own surface temperature dataset (HadCRUT4), or our satellite dataset of lower tropospheric temperatures (UAH)


This is obviously the work of some Right Wing Nutjob fringe conspiracy site, right, lefties? Oh wait…he’s a former NASA climatologist. And he is not the only prominent one who dares to speak the obvious.

When one argues with a devout member of the Climate Change Church, one hears about “SCIENCE!” ad nauseam. While computer modeling does play an important role, it isn’t “settled”, as a droning former vice-president is fond of saying. They’re speculative and, in this case, overwhelmingly wrong.

Unfortunately, the grant money is still going to the people who want to dislocate their shoulders trying to fit the square peg into the round hole so we’ll be hearing the “Settled!” chorus for quite some time to come.


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