The PJ Tatler

That Q Poll Showing Obama Up by Five in Ohio Has a Flaw (Updated: PPP Too?)

Its partisan split skews much too far to the left.

Is there any reason to believe that Democrats enjoy an 8-point advantage in a state that consistently swings between the parties, mirroring the national vote? I don’t think so.

Quinnipiac may also be missing a massive trend: It has chosen not to poll PA anymore at all, saying that it’s “In the bag for Obama.” Both campaigns clearly disagree, as they’re both spending money and time in Pennsylvania in the closing days to capture it. It’s a must-win for Obama, and a nice-t0-have for Romney.

Update: Public Policy Trolling gets in on the massive unnatural splits act too.

Update: Ed Morrissey has more here. Bottom line, the Q poll gets Obama into the lead by undercounting Republicans compared to 2008 turnout. That is simply not in line with the 2012 reality.