The PJ Tatler

Walker Maintains Lead in Recall Vote

It’s just  short of the poll’s margin of error, but Governor Scott Walker’s lead in the Marquette Law School poll is unchanged from the numbers that came out two weeks ago:

A new Marquette Law School poll finds Governor Scott Walker with 52 percent to Mayor Tom Barrett with 45 percent among 600 likely voters in next week’s recall election. That lead falls slightly short of statistical significance. The poll was taken May 23-26, with most interviews completed before last Friday’s first gubernatorial debate, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch had 46 percent and Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin president Mahlon Mitchell had 41 percent, with 11 percent not expressing a preference. The margin in the Lt. Governor’s race is not statistically significant.

The seven-point advantage for Walker was statistically unchanged from the six-point margin two weeks ago in the Marquette Law School poll taken May 9-12, when Walker had 50 percent to Barrett’s 44 percent.

Among all registered voters the margin is six points, with Walker at 50 percent and Barrett at 44 percent. The registered voter sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

In the presidential race President Barack Obama received 51 percent to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s 43 percent among likely voters.

Significantly, about twice as many Wisconsin voters think the jobs situation is improving compared to the survey released two weeks ago — 38-20%. Walker also led Barrett 50-43% when voters were asked which candidate would do better at creating jobs.

Another good sign for the incumbent — he has cracked the 50% barrier. With less than a week to go before the vote, that bodes very well for Walker’s chances.

A right track/wrong track question also favored Walker  with voters by a 52-44% margin believing the state is on the right track.

Most of the underlying questions give Walker reason for optimism, including an indication that there is an enthusiasm gap:

Republicans are more likely to say they are “absolutely certain to vote” on June 5, at 92 percent, while 77 percent of Democrats say this. Eighty-four percent of independents say they are absolutely certain to vote.

Walker has been playing a prevent defense in the last week, trying to keep a lower profile and avoid gaffes. Barrett has not been so lucky. When asked to name one school that has suffered as a result of Walker’s collective bargaining reform, he couldn’t name one.