The PJ Tatler

Primaries: Indiana, West Virginia, North Carolina, Plus the #WIrecall (Update: Lugar Loses)

Three states head for normal primaries today, along with Wisconsin’s recall primary. The presidential results are yawners now that Romney has all but captured the nomination, but there are several key results to watch for.

In Indiana, State Treasurer Richard Mourdock is expected to knock off longtime Sen. Richard Lugar in the GOP primary. Mourdock’s victory will be seen as evidence that the Tea Party is still pulling the party toward the right and fiscal responsibility. Lugar, caught off guard by Mourdock’s strong challenge, has run as an establishment candidate who’ll preserve the status quo. He defined the term “tin ear,” and his Senate career will probably come to an end as a result. He’ll still have his generous pension and a lobbyist career to keep the lights on, though. You can check Indiana results here.

In North Carolina, voters head to the polls to vote on gay marriage. Gay marriage has proven to be a tricky issue, one in which voters seem to lie to pollsters. Polls find the issue to be a 50-50, but actual elections find it to be more like 55-45 against. North Carolina is expected to uphold the definition of marriage as between one man and one woman, via constitutional amendment. The probable result put President Obama in such a bind, coming on the heels of VP Biden’s announced of support for gay marriage, that the president quickly canceled an event in the swing state that he will need in the fall. You can follow the results here, at the very bottom of the page.

In Wisconsin, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is expected to hand the unions yet another defeat when he knocks off Katherine Falk in the Democratic recall primary. The unions have backed Falk, while Barrett is the establishment Democrat candidate. After the primary Barrett will have about a month to challenge Gov. Scott Walker, the Republican recalled for fulfilling campaign promises and delivering results that have actually benefited the state. Polls are tight between Barrett and Walker. The recall is June 5th. Given the location and the stakes, expect many attempts at voter fraud, which Democrats will insist never happened if they get the result they want.

Update (6:51 central): Fox projects that Sen. Dick Lugar has lost the Indiana primary.