Poll: Can Ted Cruz Win the Texas Senate Primary?

A new poll out today says yes:

These results are from a poll which was conducted through automated phonecalls and direct email solicitations of 4372 Republican voters in the state of Texas of whom 844 responded to the poll. 56% of the responses came from direct email contacts and 44% from telephone responses. The pool consisted of active party members identified by association with clubs, groups and party organizations and voters who were identified from voter rolls as having voted Republican in 2008 and 2010. They were geographically distributed over most of the state, with clusters in Tarrant, Denton, Comal, Harris, Hays, Travis, Blanco, Collin, Llano and Montgomery Counties. The results of other questions also included in this poll will be released separately.

Ted Cruz: 32%

David Dewhurst: 31%

Tom Leppert: 8%

Cruz is the former solicitor general of Texas; Dewhurst is currently the state’s lieutenant governor; Leppert is the former mayor of Dallas. This poll’s methodology obviously differs from standard polls that tend to query either “Texans” or “Americans” or “likely voters.” This poll seems to have filtered for strong Republicans, the group most likely to cast votes in the 2012 GOP primary. Given the politics of Texas right now, these voters are the most likely to decide who will be Texas’ next senator. So it’s very encouraging for the Cruz candidacy, which has already shown its strength in fundraising, raising about $1 million per quarter over the past couple of quarter.