While I may occasionally grouse about the the downer nature of political news, I am still a big fan of the game of American politics. That's even more true now that I have decades of activist experience under my belt. I am also blessed by the ability to be dispassionate while watching the game being played. The aforementioned grousing is most often about one story dominating several news cycles in a row, making it a slog to find new angles for my contractually obligated commentary. I still have pundit PTSD from COVID.
As you are well aware, the news this week has been tariff heavy. I've run out of ways to write, "I don't know much about tariffs so I'll just trust President Trump on this and not freak out unless there's an actual reason to." I'm writing this on Thursday evening and a freak out reason has yet to present itself, by the way.
Something tariff related caught my eye on Wednesday, and it prompted me to ponder the 2028 presidential election, despite my good friend Stephen Green's plea for a moratorium on the subject. Hey, I have to take advantage of sparks of inspiration when they happen.
Long before Kamala Harris crashed and burned last November, it was pretty obvious that the two front-runners for the Democratic nomination in 2028 were two governors: California's Gavin Newsom and Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer. I've thought all along that Whitmer is the heavy early favorite. She's a lot more politically savvy than people on our side give her credit for and Michigan is much less of a mess than California. Heavy emphasis on the "much" there.
The biggest reason, however, is the same one that made me laugh off every suggestion that Gavin Newsom would end up replacing Joe Biden on the Dem ticket last year: he doesn't check any of the all-holy diversity boxes for the party. I'm not saying that Newsom can't overcome that. Even the Dems can temporarily forget about their DEI obsession for a big enough campaign war chest.
Both Newsom and Whitmer are making obvious moves with 2028 in mind. Newsom has been hanging out with conservatives on his podcast. He's not about to unseat Joe Rogan, mind you, but the podcast has generated a lot of publicity for him, some of it bad. It's easy to see that Newsom has a smarmy, "any publicity is good publicity" ego, and he's probably right when it comes to Democratic politics. They tend to pretend that bad publicity never happened over there.
Newsom has even stepped off of the "transgender males in women's sports" hill that his fellow Democrats want to die on. Rick wrote about that for us last month.
Earlier in the week, Whitmer made a slightly bold move for a 2025 Democrat, which The Washington Post covered:
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, sought Wednesday to distinguish herself from fellow Democrats who have been strongly criticizing President Donald Trump and his tariffs, offering a more nuanced assessment during a speech emphasizing bipartisanship in Washington.
The speech came ahead of a meeting with Trump at the White House, her second since Trump returned to office.
This isn't about whether I think that Whitmer and Newsom are changing their dark Democrat hearts, because I don't. This is about the game of politics and optics.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez may be drawing some crowds when she and Bernie Sanders hit the road to shout at people about, "ZOMG THE OLIGARCHS," but that's just rotting red meat for the Dem base.
What Whitmer and Newsom are doing is making an ever-so-subtle play for voters they really need to woo: regular, non-coastal Democrats who have had enough of the crazy that the party is selling, and independents who also won't be opting in for drag queen story hours anytime soon. They may be the only two Democrats of note who understand why the party had such a rough time of it in the last election.
Even if they're both being completely insincere, the mere appearance of them stepping away from the drunk aunts and uncles in the family can be powerful. Perception is everything, especially in the modern media era. Democrats are very adept at presenting a façade during a campaign, then reverting to form once in the new office.
That may be precisely what Whitmer and Newsom are doing now. However, they're also admitting that the Dems' "loud and crazy" approach isn't a good one. In addition to that, their actions are tacit acknowledgement that they're aware that their media narrative machine isn't what it use to be.
They may not be rushing to the political center — if one even exists for Democrats anymore — but they are slightly turning away from some of the lunacy that's celebrated by the party elites.
It'll be fun to watch other Dems try to cancel them.
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