Yes, this is pure fantasy speculation that I'm engaging in way too early, but it is rooted in reality.
Historical election trends tell us that midterm elections heavily favor the party that doesn't hold the White House at the time. However, I have made the sound point on countless occasions in the last eight years that conventional wisdom and historical election trends don't mean a whole lot in the Trump era. All of that got tossed out the window when he was first elected president in 2016.
Given that, it is not at all out of the realm of possibility that the Republicans could find themselves in a partying mood after the midterm elections in 2026.
After Joe Biden was installed as the occupier of the Oval Office in 2021, Republican dreams became all about giving the Democrats a good whupping in the 2022 midterms. At the time, I was convinced that Biden's reign would so quickly prove to be awful that a severe electoral backlash in 2022 would be a given.
Those were the darkest of times, and my brain was foggy. I had put aside my many experiences of the GOP looking various gift horses in their mouths. Instead of a red wave, it was reality that crashed down on November 8, 2022. Yeah, the Republicans held up the historical trend and took back the House, but not with enough of a majority to do anything unless everybody played nice.
We know how that went.
The Grand Old Party has undergone a Trumpian transformation since the fall of 2022. It is now a party that prioritizes — I kid you not — winning elections over palling around at Beltway happy hours.
Combine the new lean, mean GOP election machine with the fact that the Democrats are still wandering around more lost than Adam Lambert in a gentlemen's club and 2026 starts to look a little redder than planned. Since the election last year, I have publicly asserted many times that the Dems' floundering response to getting their commie derrieres handed to them has me feeling like a big night for the Republicans in the 2026 midterms isn't out of the question. Anyone who has been hanging around me for a while knows that I'm not one who's generally given to optimism when it comes to the GOP.
There are hints that the Dems might be feeling the same way. This is from my friend Ed Morrissey over at our sister site HotAir:
Rats. Sinking ships. Some disassembly ... inevitable.
Conventional wisdom around midterms usually has the party in the White House losing steam as voters correct for overreach. So why have three Senate Democrats already announced their intent to retire ahead of the 2026 elections?
Jeanne Shaheen made the surprising announcement this morning that she would forego a fourth term, following Tina Smith in Minnesota and Gary Peters in Michigan. Shaheen probably would have had a decent incumbent advantage in New Hampshire -- and Chris Sununu had already passed on challenging her
Granted, these are all blue states, but there's definitely wiggle room in Michigan and New Hampshire. As Ed notes later, Sununu might reconsider. Yes, he's a squish, but #SquishLivesMatter when it comes to racking up majority numbers in the House.
Again, this is all wild speculation. The Democrats continue doubling down on everything that made them lose last year. The Democratic National Committee isn't the long-term political force it used to be. At present, they're paving their path to November 2026 with rakes that they'll keep stepping on.
So, yeah, a guy can dream.
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