The internal squabbling among Democratic officials and their devoted lapdog propagandists in the mainstream media over the future of Joe Biden is still raging on. As I wrote in Wednesday's Morning Briefing, I think that Mrs. Biden has decided that her husband should stick around and that the MSM hacks will eventually light the unity candle and get back to "reporting" on a Joe Biden who doesn't exist (and never really did).
Nate Silver is not only a leftist pollster, but a media darling as well. Silver is also not afraid to keep things honest, which is a rarity in anyone lefty who enjoys the media access that he does. Lately, Silver's polling has cast him as the harbinger of doom for Joe Biden's November prospects. Matt wrote before last week's debate that Silver was full of gloom and doom for Biden, which really amped up the pressure for the Oval Office occupier to do well.
We know how that went.
On Tuesday, my friend Stephen Green delivered Silver's latest Biden End Times numbers:
The latest Silver Bulletin (subscription required; I paid so you don't have to) shows Biden with just a 27.6% chance of winning the Electoral College and 44.2% odds of taking the popular vote. Trump is up heavily in less than a week since the first — or will that be only? — presidential debate.
As the internet kids like to say: that's gonna leave a mark.
Perhaps the most bizarre aspect of the Dems' post-debate internecine panic dialogue has been that The New York Times has delivered the most brutally honest assessments of the current state of affairs.
The Times still drives the false narratives for the Democrats. It's nigh on impossible to tell where the Democratic National Committee ends and The New York Times begins. The Times has done more to create and perpetuate the Biden myth since 2020 than any other news organization, because that's the mission there. Times editors were so committed that, a mere six days before the debate, they tasked three writers with publishing a piece titled, "How Misleading Videos Are Trailing Biden as He Battles Age Doubts."
While the Biden myth has been the priority for the past four years, the overarching mission at the Times is to make sure that the Democratic Party is successful. At the moment, the powers that be at the Times are insisting that the party move on from President LOLEightyonemillion. The Opinion section of the Times is where they like to dispense helpful advice for the Dems, so they brought in Nate Silver to walk the party through what it should do with its Biden conundrum.
Looking at polls beyond the straight horse-race numbers between Mr. Biden and Donald Trump — ones that include Democratic Senate candidate races in close swing-state races — suggests something even more troubling about Mr. Biden’s chances, but also offers a glimpse of hope for Democrats.
You don’t need another pundit telling you that Mr. Biden should quit the race, although I’m among those who emphatically think he should. But Democrats should be more open to what polls are telling them — and again, not just Biden-Trump polls. There is a silver lining for Democrats to be found in these surveys. Voters in these polls like Democratic candidates for Congress just fine. More than fine, actually: It’s Mr. Biden who is the problem.
As he does, Silver provides raw data for how well Democrats are polling in races for the House and Senate, especially in swing states. At first blush, it's a compelling argument for the Biden Replacement Theory advocates. If conventional political wisdom were still prevalent, the DNC would be offering Jill Biden a buyout package that even she couldn't refuse.
For years, I've been writing that conventional political wisdom — especially in an election year — died a hideous death in 2016. If it had managed to survive that election, 2020 would have finished it off.
My home state is a good example of why Silver's reasoning may not impact the presidential race much. Arizona is new to its swing state status, and Trump is polling exceedingly well here. Ultra-progressive Democrat Ruben Gallego is also almost certainly going to win Kyrsten Sinema's seat. That, however, has more to do with the fact that the Arizona Republican Party is an unmitigated disaster that has no bench whatsoever than it does with an overwhelming affection for Dems here in the Grand Canyon State (six of our nine reps in the House are Republican, and four of them are members of the Freedom Caucus).
Silver even admits that any potential Biden replacement will come out of the gate trailing Trump and that the mechanics of the process to enact such a change are difficult.
Related: Trump Isn't Sweating Any of the Potential Biden Replacements
He knows that he still has to perform his dual role as doomsday prophesier and dutiful cheerleader, though. Everyone on the other side of the aisle is getting severe dyspepsia from pondering even the best-case scenarios facing them at the moment. They know that there is a relative eternity between now and November, however, and that the DNC's bag of shenanigans no doubt has a few things left in it.
The New York Times will continue to provide the pulse of the Democratic Party in this drama and, for now, it's in "Goodbye Joe" mode.
Your move, Mrs. Biden.
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