When Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) bolted from the Democratic Party and declared herself an independent, it immediately set up what promises to be one of the more interesting electoral battles during the 2024 cycle. A Democrat challenge from her left flank was coming, and Dems here in the Grand Canyon State have simply been waiting to see which hat would be thrown into the ring first. Progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) took the first step.
Representative Ruben Gallego, a progressive Democrat from Phoenix, announced on Monday that he would run for the Senate in 2024, setting up a potential face-off with Senator Kyrsten Sinema over her seat that could carry high stakes for Democrats’ control of the upper chamber.
Mr. Gallego, a 43-year-old former state lawmaker and U.S. Marine veteran, began his campaign with a video in which he declares his run to a group of fellow veterans at American Legion Post 124 in Guadalupe, Ariz., near Phoenix. In it, he highlights his humble Chicago origins and his combat experience in Iraq, and he pledges to fight to extend the American dream to more families.
I’m still trying to figure out how a Marine becomes a progressive, but nothing really surprises me anymore when it comes to American politics.
A few narratives about the current state of Arizona politics will be tested by progressive challenges to Sinema; the biggest being that Arizona is now a blue state.
True, we have two Democrats in the Senate, and the upper tier of the state government is now in the grasp of the Dems. Our House map is a bit different though. Gallego represents a tiny district that abuts another very tiny district, both of which were pretty much drawn so that the Democrats could have more than one Arizonan in the House of Representatives. Our House map is bright red, and the state is Prince’s wardrobe purple.
Arizona Democrats are convinced that a progressive attack will not only derail Sinema’s chances for reelection but will also be able to win the seat outright. They’re looking to be more than spoilers. That will probably break down for a few reasons.
We still have a lot of elderly voters in Arizona. I mean, the kind who are still influenced by direct mail campaigns. It’s how John McCain kept getting elected here long after every conservative under the age of 55 had wearied of him. The older Democrats aren’t raging progressives and might still find Sinema more palatable than Gallego.
The fact that Gallego is Latino will garner him far more votes than his progressive politics. That’s just the way things work in the southern half of this state. That does make him a formidable threat, however.
Sinema won’t have much trouble tacking to the left when vying for the hearts of Democratic voters. Despite her few pushbacks against leadership, she is still radical on abortion and the border. With all of the gridlock we’re bound to see with the GOP in control of the House, Sinema may not have to register another vote that counters the Dems before the 2024 election. Voters can have very short memories, and she may not be persona non grata like Arizona Democrat leadership thinks she’ll be by this time next year.
If the Arizona Republican Party can pull its head out of its elephantine rear, this should be a boon for them. The left vote will be split between Sinema and the eventual Democratic nominee, practically handing the election to the Republicans. Of course, that will also require the Arizona GOP to make sure it doesn’t get blindsided by more shenanigans in Maricopa County.
(The concerns of the “RIGGED!/ALL IS LOST!/TAKING MY BALL AND GOING HOME!” crowd have been duly noted and responded to ad nauseam so I won’t be doing that again.)
There have been whispers that recently term-limited Gov. Doug Ducey may run for this seat. If he does, and the Dem votes are being split, it could be as close to being idiot proof for the AZGOP as it can get.
I’m not much for political prognostication anymore, but I do think that the Arizona Democratic Party and the national media are going to find out that oft-rumored progressive takeover of my beloved native state isn’t happening.
Yet, anyway.
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