It would be nice if we could have rung in 2023 before the arguments about 2024 began. One intense holiday bender with confetti would have been nice before diving into partisan politics again. However, we will not be granted that kind of reprieve when politics invades everything from the latest Disney movie to what brand of razor you use.
Less than a week after the most contentious midterm in modern history, former President Donald J. Trump announced he would run for his lame-duck term in 2024. Overly pleased with himself at Democrats not getting completely obliterated in the midterms, Joe Biden, the first octogenarian president, announced he would likely run for a second term. Grudge Match 2024 might be what we all deserve.
But it does not appear that it’s what anyone wants. According to a poll from YouGov and The Economist, almost no one wants Trump or Biden to run again. Only 15% of independent voters want Joe Biden to run again, and a mere 39% of Democrats do. Only 32% of black voters, one of Biden’s most loyal constituencies, give a thumbs up for Biden 2024. Among another reliable Democrat bloc, women, only 18% are on board. Overall, only 22% total want to go ridin’ with Biden again. This leaves a wide lane for another candidate to step in and appeal to primary voters and woo independents in the general.
The most likely candidate, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, recently said he would not challenge Biden if the president runs for a second term. Weird, since Newsom tried on the role, visiting the White House while Biden made a trip to the Middle East this summer. Vice President Kamala Harris said she would reprise her role as running mate, not a challenger if Biden runs. However, earlier this week, Biden played coy when a crowd chanted, “Four more years!” responding, “Oh, I don’t know.” Maybe the will of the voters will win out. But if Democrats are going to have a primary, Biden’s status needs to be confirmed soon.
Republicans, on the other hand, appear a little more tied to their near-octogenarian. A majority, 58%, said they want Trump to run in 2024. Only 26% of independents and 24% of women feel the same way. One could mistakenly read this as that Trump is more popular than Biden, but it should be read as that a majority of Democrats want a different candidate. And if there is one, only 26% of independents and 24% of women can be reliably counted on to vote for Trump if he is the nominee.
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Overall, 31% of voters want to see Trump run in 2024. Yet a majority in nearly every demographic does not want another Trump candidacy. When the poll measured candidate preference, among Republicans, Trump led his closest potential challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 36% to 30%. With seven potential candidates listed, only 1% are looking for a candidate not listed, and 7% say they are undecided.
However, DeSantis appears to have an edge over Trump in a separate poll from WPA Intelligence. DeSantis’ net favorability ratings surpass Trump’s among Republicans (+66 vs. +44), Fox News viewers (+58 vs. +27), and Trump’s own 2020 voters (+69 vs. +54). He is also well-liked by the entire coalition of Republicans. DeSantis has a 68%/0% favorable/unfavorable rating among self-described “Trump Republicans,” 71%/9% among “Traditional Republicans,” and 82%/5% among “Reagan Republicans.”
Even more importantly, DeSantis appeals more to independent voters than Trump or Biden, with a net -3 favorability rating. That compares to a -27 for Biden and -39 for Trump. Among split-ticket voters who vote for candidates from both parties in the same election, DeSantis’ net favorability rating is +7, Biden’s is -21, and Trump’s is -36. Trump is viewed unfavorably by almost one in three voters who backed Republicans in the 2022 midterms and one in five voters who supported him in 2020. Additionally, 66% of independents view Trump unfavorably, including 52% who view him very unfavorably.
One of the lessons from both of these assessments is that America has no appetite for a 2020 do-over. More importantly, the lesson for Republicans is to avoid the obvious tactical mistake of letting a plurality candidate who will alienate broad categories of voters win the primary. The GOP won the popular vote in the midterms and needs to replicate that level of performance to win in 2024. That is not accomplished by getting the base out. It will be won by putting forth an appealing candidate who appeals to all Republicans and voters who don’t belong to the party.
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