In 1968, Paul Ehrlich wrote The Population Bomb. He predicted worldwide famine in the 1970s and 1980s due to overpopulation and suggested action to limit population growth. You hear echoes of Ehrlich’s apocalyptic view when young women take to social media and declare that they will not have children because of climate change. In 2021, the UN estimated there were 7.7 billion people on earth and that number may reach 11 billion by 2100.
Even though humanity has always found ways to increase food production and other needed resources, the rising population prediction is one reason the UN declared a “Code Red for Humanity” related to climate change. However, just as Ehrlich’s predictions never came true, neither have the UN’s. A new study funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in the Lancet makes a solid case that everything you have been told about overpopulation is overblown.
Our findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR [total fertility rate] lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come.
The analysis predicts the global TFR will fall below the replacement rate globally between 2025 and 2034. Some regions may stay above replacement level through 2050 and decline in the latter half of the century. The authors predict, “Responding to sustained low fertility is likely to become an overriding policy concern in many nations given the economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences of low birth rates.”
Much of the West is already below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per couple. The United States hit a record low for the sixth year in a row in 2020. Japan, Russia, and China are ahead of Europe and the U.S., with declining populations. Researchers have some insight into how a declining population affects the social, economic, and cultural fabric of a nation.
Highly educated populations where women put careers before motherhood, a lack of economic opportunity for men, and demographic holes created by public policy all contribute to declining populations in these nations. But the outcomes are plain to see. In imperialistic countries like Russia and China, it is driving an aggressive posture to add to their population by conquering other nations. One analyst wrote:
After all, Russia’s need for more people is no doubt a motivating consideration for its current aggressive posture toward Ukraine, and Putin has said the thought of a depopulated Russia haunts him most—even if the idea that Ukrainians would sign up to be good Russians is largely delusional. But Russia’s demography and the long shadow of the 1990s severely inhibit what the Kremlin can do now. Russia’s future ambitions are still weighed down by its recent past.
It is realistic to assume that the Chinese Communist Party is similarly motivated to eye Taiwan. All three nations struggle to care for the elderly and face stagflation, declining living standards, shortages, and rising median age. Russia may lose one-third of its population by 2050, according to the Lancet study, and a Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences team predicts China’s will be cut in half by 2100. The median age globally was 21.5 in 1970. In 2020, it was nearly 31. Increases in longevity are masking some of the current declines in working-age and childbearing populations. But in the not too distant future, the West will be facing many of the same challenges Russia, China, and Japan are facing. Unless something changes.
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Most researchers predict when the population begins to decline, it will continue to zero. There is no example of a nation whose TFR fell below 2.1 and then recovered fully. One glimmer of hope is Hungary, where Conservatives point to the government’s family-friendly policies. Between 2019 and 2022, the fertility rate in the nation has increased from 1.501 per woman to 1.530, but there is still a long way to go to reach full replacement value. Still, the authors of the Lancet study wrote, “Once global population decline begins, it will probably continue inexorably.” That may be why leading thinkers like Elon Musk have been sounding the alarm bell about a population collapse.
This data makes the current climate alarmism policies that are pro-scarcity and anti-human even more ridiculous. An intelligent public policy would be creating an abundance of what is needed to feed, fuel, and employ the current generation in a way that encourages them to form couples and families. The culture in the West is doing almost precisely the opposite. It will make us all less safe, prosperous, and secure in the near term.
