Poll Stunner: Support for Gay Marriage DROPS. Was the Trans Issue the Poison Pill?

Caroline Brehman/Pool via AP

Amber Heard is a complete and total smoke show. Simply stunning! And I’m not just saying this as a (very) superficial male: Her beauty is an irrefutable scientific fact. (Kind of.)

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With apologies to Lupita Nyong’o, Amber Heard is a living, breathing goddess whose beauty really could “launch a thousand ships.” There’s a reason why she’s dated the world’s most eligible celebrities and business tycoons — including Johnny Depp and Elon Musk. Her sexiness is off-the-charts.

Just one teeny-tiny problem: Every now and then… she’ll poop on your pillow. (Allegedly.)

That, my friends, is a PR poison pill!

It ties to rule #40 of Morton Blackwell’s Laws of the Public Policy Process: “One big reason is better than many little reasons.” In Amber Heard’s (messy) example, the zillions of little reasons were her beauty, sexiness, stardom, curves, and flawless facial symmetry; the one big reason, alas, was staring Johnny Depp in the eye from atop his silk pillow.

Ain’t that the way? A girl does a million things right — and then her man leaves her after one measly bowel movement!

In political PR, your party, candidate, or advocacy campaign might be a perfect match for the electorate. On 99 out of 100 issues, the public is firmly in your pocket. If you were scoring round by round on the 10-point must system, you would’ve won in a landslide.

But if that one disagreement is big enough, you’ll still lose the election, because one big reason matters more than 99 little ones.

That’s the power of a PR poison pill: It’s a dealbreaker that contaminates everything else. No matter how good, pure, and popular the rest of it is, a PR poison pill taints your brand beyond recovery.

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This takes us to an eye-opening new Gallup poll that was released on June 3

Approval of same-sex marriage, moral acceptance of gay and lesbian relations, and endorsement of gender changes are all down from peaks reached in the early 2020s.

While most Americans still favor legal same-sex marriages, the 65% who do so today is down six percentage points from the peak in 2022 and 2023. Similarly, the percentage viewing gay or lesbian relations as morally acceptable, 62%, has not been lower since 2016. And the share of Americans who consider changing one's gender morally acceptable has declined eight points over the past five years, to 38%.

On three key LGBTQ issues — same-sex marriage, the morality of homosexuality, and gender identity — Gallup’s polling data told the same exact story: Popularity for all three skyrocketed between the 2010s and the early 2020s. The future, it seemed, was pro-trans and pro-LGBTQ. 

But over the past few years, the pendulum swung HARD in the opposite direction:

Between 1996 and 2022, the percentage of U.S. adults in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage increased by 44 points, from 27% to 71%. In 2024, the figure dipped to 69%, and it has shown a marginal decline each year since.

Gallup first asked about the morality of same-sex relations in 2001, when 40% said they were morally acceptable. By 2022, 71% held that view, before a sharp drop to 64% in 2023, holding at about that level during the past three years.

When Gallup first asked about changing one's gender in 2021, 46% found it morally acceptable, and 51% found it morally wrong. Today, those numbers stand at 38% and 57%, respectively. [emphasis added]

The 62% of Americans who view gay/lesbian relationships as moral is Gallup’s lowest number since 2016.

The New York Times’ headline placed the “blame” squarely on Republicans: “Republican Support for Same-Sex Marriage Has Fallen by 18 Percentage Points Since 2022.”

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But if you read Gallup’s report, it wasn’t just Republicans: Independent support for same-sex marriage dropped by 6 points; independent support for gender reassignment fell by 6 points; independents who believe same-sex relationships are moral dropped by 8 points.

Interestingly, for those three issues, Democratic support stayed constant — with one notable exception. (Can you guess which one it was?)

In 2022, 87% of Dems supported same-sex marriages; today it’s still 87%. As for the morality of same-sex relationships, in Gallup’s analysis, there was “no meaningful change among Democrats (now at 81%).”

The one issue where the Democrats changed the most was on trans rights, where support dropped by 7 points!

I don’t think that’s coincidental. In fact, if you study Gallup’s timeline, the tide began to turn against the LGBTQ movement in early 2023. Before then, it was nothing but gains; all the momentum was theirs.

And not-so-coincidentally, 2023 was also the year when — among (many) other things — Bud Light showcased transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney in its ill-fated ad campaign. (April 1, 2023, to be exact.)

The secret to LGBTQ’s earlier acceptance was a very clever, two-prong PR campaign: Bigotry is wrong (“Love is love!”) and gay people are no different than anyone else.

Opposing racism, sexism, and bigotry is drilled into our heads at a very young age, so the first half was an easy sell. (It advanced steadily and generationally.) And with gay people so ubiquitous — they’re in your family, my family, and the rest of society — we didn’t want to hurt the people we cared about. We want the best for ALL our friends and family.

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Besides, if marriage is good for straight people, wouldn’t it also be good for gays? So what’s the problem with gay marriage? What are you — a bigot?!

If gay people want to get married, let ‘em suffer with the rest of us!

At first, the trans movement piggybacked on gay marriage’s PR messaging: Trans people are just like you and me. Your children could be trans. Anyone could be trans! Don’t you want the best for your children?

This messaging was synthesized into the snappy soundbite, “Would you rather have a living son or a dead daughter?” (And vice-versa, of course.) It gave audiences a binary, Patrick Henry-inspired choice: Transition or death.

Some rejected the soundbite immediately:

But for most Americans, it took time to reach a conclusion. We heard the media’s messaging and saw a slew of warm, glowing, positive portrayals of trans people — especially children. 

Trans children were everywhere!

Megyn Kelly went on national TV and said, “it is possible to transition [children] socially, with love and support and acceptance within a family and a community.”:

From 2010 through 2022, most Americans gave the trans movement the benefit of the doubt: If this is what it takes to prevent kids from committing suicide, well, being trans is certainly better than the alternative.

But then the trans movement overreached. 

We saw male-to-female MMA fighter Fallon Fox shatter the orbital bone of “her” female opponent — and was heralded by OutSports as “the bravest athlete in history.” We heard countless accounts of scared little girls who didn’t want to share their locker rooms, bathrooms, and school showers with biological males — and were promptly derided as bigots and bullies. Young men were told they were “transphobic” if they didn’t want to date a “girl” with testicles and a penis.

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Instead of “protecting children,” the trans movement did the opposite, displaying a callous indifference to the safety, traditions, and integrity of all other groups and institutions. Trans people were given carte blanche to do whatever the hell they wanted, and anyone who disagreed was blackballed from polite society. 

This wasn’t equality; it was supremacy — with the trans movement at the top.

It grew increasingly creepy and Orwellian, with the satire site Babylon Bee banned from Twitter (now X) for “misgendering” trans political appointee Rachel Levine. And the Babylon Bee was far from alone.

Disagreeing with someone’s choice of pronouns could, quite literally, get you demonetized and barred for life from social media!

Then a weird connection between trans and gun violence began to emerge. There was the Tumbler Ridge school shooting in February 2026. The Annunciation Catholic School mass shooting in August 2025. The 2023 Nashville school shooting. And, of course, the assassination of Charlie Kirk by Tyler Robinson, who was (allegedly) motivated by his trans lover.

Instead of perceiving trans people as victims, they were increasingly seen as perpetrators.

For a group that’s less than 1% of the population, they certainly seemed overrepresented in shocking acts of violence. Some of the crime stats were especially damning:

Little by little, Americans noticed that we didn’t see too many trans kids in our own families or neighborhoods — but among Hollywood celebrities, they were practically everywhere. And they often appeared in clusters that were statistically improbable, such as Oscar-winning movie star Marcia Gay Harden’s three children, one of whom is gay, the other is non-binary, and the third is “gender fluid.” And Harden wasn’t the only celeb with trans kids:

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The trans movement seemed less based on a rigid, immovable biological reality about gender, and more a byproduct of peer pressure, mental vulnerabilities, and “social contagions.”

From the Wall Street Journal:

I was an academic scientist at Penn State in February 2020, when I became the target of an online mob for tweeting about transgender identity. I shared a link to an article from the Guardian with the accompanying quote: “Sweden’s Board of Health and Welfare confirmed a 1,500% rise between 2008 and 2018 in gender dysphoria diagnoses among 13- to 17-year-olds born as girls.” My commentary was brief: “Two words: social contagion.”

Within hours, colleagues denounced me as a “transphobic” bigot.

The “social contagion” association was a PR killer because gay and lesbian people gained public acceptance AFTER we decided that sexual orientation wasn’t a choice; it’s hardwired into our personalities. Therefore, it’s not something that can be “willed away.” 

Like it or not, this is how gay and straight people are born.

But what if it’s not? What if a large percentage of the trans community was comprised of confused, lost souls who are desperate for a sense of belonging?

The trans movement tried to have it both ways: Gender was a “social construct” that didn’t matter anyway — yet so intrinsic to our identity, why, preventing a boy from identifying as a girl would drive him/her to suicide.

Eventually, the American people had enough: The cognitive dissonance was simply too great.

And because the LGBTQ movement bundled itself under a unified banner rainbow — it literally stands for lesbian, gay, bisexual, TRANSGENDER, and queer — when one pillar collapsed, there was an inevitable ripple effect. It undermined public acceptance of the entire LGBTQ community. 

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And now, according to Gallup, LGBTQ acceptance is at its lowest level since 2016.

History will show that the trans movement was a PR poison pill that set the LGBTQ movement back at least a decade. All that goodwill — and a generation of positive PR — was squandered at the altar of transitioning children. 

If the trendlines continue, same-sex marriage will probably be on the chopping block by 2030. This is serious stuff: By hitching its wagon to the trans movement, the entire LGBTQ campaign was imperiled.

That’s what happens when a political movement poops the bed.

Y’know. Just like Amber Heard.

One Last Thing: 2026 is a critical year for America First. It began with Mayor Mamdani declaring war on “rugged individualism” and will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the fate of the America First movement teeters in the balance.

Never before have the political battle lines been so clearly defined. Win or lose, 2026 will transform our country.

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