There are two kinds of opinion polls, cyclical ones and linear ones. And the most common error in political commentary is mistaking the former for the latter.
Cyclical polls rise and fall with the seasons. They’re hypersensitive to breaking news and current events, often joined at the hip to economic benchmarks: When the news is good, they increase; when the news is bad, they do the opposite.
For most of Trump’s two terms, he’s been a cyclical performer. The public judges him via the fruits of his labor and rewards (or punishes) him accordingly.
Linear polls are different. They usually involve some sort of a “tipping point” where the polling trajectory is locked in place, marching in lockstep towards a very specific long-term destination.
Those numbers don't rise and fall.
Instead, a consensus is reached; public opinion has hardened, and the die is cast. You’ve run out of malleable, reachable, persuadable voters.
The trajectory is now permanent.
Joe Biden went from cyclical to linear after his horrific 2024 debate performance against Donald Trump. A consensus was reached: “OMG, Biden’s brain has turned to mush!”
After that, his political career was over.
A linear trajectory is like a black hole: It’s next to impossible to escape. Barring an earth-shattering, paradigm-shifting, black swan event, the gig is up.
A politician’s only chance for survival is to avoid being ensnared in its gravitational death-grip in the first place.
And this takes us to President Trump’s current polling numbers. His approval rating has dropped to the mid-30s, and by a 2-1 margin, more Americans blame Trump for raising prices than credit him for lowering them.
Here’s CNN’s Harry Enten’s breakdown:
This has been the worst 10-day polling period for Trump in his 2nd term.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 21, 2025
His overall net approval hit record lows in 5 polls.
His net approval with independents is down 39 pts from January to -43 pts.
His net approval on inflation is down to -34 pts.
Just atrocious. pic.twitter.com/cosYEO0xb0
Yesterday, Enten broke it down further:
[I]n January, Donald Trump’s net approval rating […] was at minus one point, right within the margin of error breaking even. But look at this now, negative 24 points. Way, way down! We’re talking about a drop of over 20 points in the wrong direction for the president of the United States. Minus 24 points, that’s a 23-point move in the incorrect direction if you’re the president.
[…]
[T]he only [president] who’s [polling] worse, either among Republicans or Democrats at this point of second term, is Richard Nixon. And of course, Richard Nixon had to wave Adios Amigos goodbye less than a year after this poll was taken. He was at minus 36 points. Trump [is] at minus 24 points. That beats, or is worse, I should say, beats in the wrong direction, George W. Bush, minus 19 points. [Bush’s] Republican Party, of course, suffered major losses in the 2006 midterm elections.
[…]
But again, [Trump’s polling numbers are] worse than Harry S. Truman. It’s worse than Lyndon Baines Johnson. It’s worse than Barack Obama. It’s worse than Bill Clinton. Anywhere you look, this is the second worst for a president of either party at this point in their second term, dating all the way back since the 1940s.
If it were just CNN, Gallup, and Harry Enten, we could stick our fingers in our ears and ignore ‘em. But at this point, Trump’s polling numbers aren’t a one-off; they’re part of a much larger trend.
As Enten noted, “I think we’re up to 10 polls in sort of the last 40 days, 10 different pollsters who have said that Trump is at the lowest point he is in his second term.”
And now, the question that will decide the 2026 midterms is this: Are Trump’s polling numbers still cyclical? Or has public opinion hardened — and we’re now locked into a linear, permanent, irreversible flight pattern?
As of today, nobody knows. (If the GOP gets smoked in the Tennessee special election tonight, losing a district that went for Trump by a whopping 22 points in 2024, feel free to panic.)
My suspicion is, Trump is less like Nixon and more like ex-NFL head coach Jerry Glanville.
(You didn’t see that comparison coming, didja?)
He’s mostly forgotten by today’s fans, but from 1985 to 1993, Jerry Glanville led the Houston Oilers and the Atlanta Falcons, reaching the playoffs in 1987, 1988, 1989, and 1991. Charming, charismatic, and off-the-charts eccentric, he was known for leaving game tickets at will call for Elvis Presley.
In fact, Glanville’s autobiography was titled, Elvis Don’t Like Football: The Life and Raucous Times of the NFL’s Most Outspoken Coach.
If you ever heard someone quip that the NFL stands for “not for long,” they’re quoting Jerry Glanville. He always wore black boots, black pants, a black leather jacket, black sunglasses, and a black cowboy hat, explaining, “Black’s not a color. Black’s an attitude.”
He won over fans and admirers with his devil-may-care, Elvis-loving, take-no-prisoners attitude. In ex-Falcons defensive lineman Tim Green’s football tell-all, The Dark Side of the Game, he wrote that Falcons players were suddenly wearing cowboy boots, buckles, and hats when Glanville arrived.
When things were going well, Jerry Glanville was beloved and admired, with Georgia celebs like MC Hammer, James Brown, and Evander Holyfield patrolling the Falcons’ sidelines. Somehow, Glanville even managed to make the moribund Falcons cool and exciting!
And his schtick worked wonderfully… right until his team ran headfirst into a wall.
When that happened, all the traits, quirks, and qualities that fans adored during the good times became liabilities. After going 6-10 in 1993, Jerry Glanville never again coached in the NFL.
That’s the problem with larger-than-life personalities: Their schtick works wonderfully during the good times, but when the times are tough, they’re perceived as unserious, distracted, childish, and out of touch.
And right now, for too many Americans, times are tough. Food, housing, and basic essentials are simply too expensive.
Voters are frustrated.
We’re seeing this reflected in the polls, with 96% of Democrats — and, far more importantly, 77% of independents — believing the U.S. is “seriously off on the wrong track.”
Just 32% say things “are generally going in the right direction.”
That’s what’s fueling Trump’s poor polling numbers: When you’re struggling to make ends meet, Trump’s schtick just doesn’t land the same.
It’s less endearing and far more infuriating.
The good news is, an economic PR problem can be solved with an economic solution. And the initial reports from the 2025 holiday season are strikingly positive: Despite the Financial Times’ ominous prediction that “U.S. Black Friday shoppers are expected to spend less as cost of living bites,” Black Friday retail sales increased by 4%, with nearly $12 billion spent online.
Related: Why Trump’s Next PR Pivot Must Be Total, Absolute Political WARFARE on Socialism
Economic reality and public sentiment don’t move at the same time. We discussed this phenomenon in Sunday’s VIP column (and if you’re not already a VIP member, what the heck are you waiting for?!):
The economic reality is like a very long train, and public sentiment is the caboose: It takes a while for the public to catch up.
Whether they believe the economy is good, bad, or something in between, public sentiment is always a lagging indicator.
Right now, in opinion poll after opinion poll, the public has a negative feeling about the economy. They believe prices are still too high — and basic necessities are no longer affordable.
And even if the economy takes off like a rocket ship, Joe Six-Pack won’t feel it right away.
It’ll take him half a year.
If (when?) the economy heats up again, pollsters will reinterpret these Nov./Dec. 2025 numbers as yet another blip in the epic Donald Trump life-story: Polls go down, polls go up — and once again, Trump’s critics have underestimated his resiliency.
Every time you try to write him off, he bounces back stronger than ever!
But if his poll numbers haven’t budged by summer 2026, something else is going on: It’ll mean he’s stuck in a linear trajectory — a fixed flight pattern — and the MAGA movement is gonna crash and burn.
The clock is ticking.
One Last Thing: The Democrats are on the ropes, but make no mistake: The donkeys are still dangerous. We need your help to succeed!
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