About 25 years ago, Andrew Sullivan coined the phrase “South Park Republicans.” Combining the ethos of the oft-vulgar (yet very funny) Comedy Central cartoon show with contemporary American politics, it described a class of voters who rolled their eyes at the absurdity of liberalism. They were mostly apolitical, but that had more to do with their disgust with the process (as well as the participants) than political ignorance.
“South Park Republicans” were surprisingly well-informed.
Co-creator Matt Stone summed up the “South Park” perspective in a 2001 online chat session: “I hate conservatives but I really f***ing hate liberals.”
After the rise of the #MeToo movement, the term fell out of favor. You don’t really hear it anymore. But in many ways, it was the forebearer of the MAGA coalition: “South Park Republicans” plus COVID restrictions plus #MeToo overreach plus the anti-MAGA/pro-establishment backlash helps explain our current culture.
From the rise of the manosphere — including such heavy hitters as Joe Rogan, Theo Von, and Barstool Sports — to the spectacular success of alt-media, “South Park Republicans” crawled so the next generation could run… and it all culminated with the second term of President Donald Trump in 2024.
They just didn’t know it at the time.
A few years before Sullivan created the phrase, the “South Park” team released a feature-length movie, 1999’s “South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut.” And a song from the movie — “Blame Canada” — was actually nominated for an Academy Award for Best Original Song.
Here it is (NSFW, obviously). Among the lyrics: “They’re not even a real country anyway”
After last night in Iran, should anything go wrong in the Middle East, the world won’t be blaming Canada, Europe, Russia, Asia, or China — although it should, because everyone played a role in enabling Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Instead, the world will blame America… but only up to a point.
After all, the world still needs America. From our military to our economy, we’re still an indispensable nation.
Not so for Israel. The Israelis are expendable.
Should anything go wrong, EVERYONE — from the international community to the Arab Street to the Tucker Carlson/Steve Bannon crowd to the AOC/Squad liberals — will “Blame Israel.”
And that’s just part of the fallout. Buckle up, boys and girls: This story is moving fast. You don’t wanna be left behind.
PR is limited by reality. Hitler, for example, had outstanding PR (Germany’s domestic use of radio propaganda was extraordinary). It helped explain his rise. But by the end, Hitler’s problem wasn’t PR; it was the rapid battlefield gains by the Americans, Russians, and the rest of Allies. PR helps you (re)define reality, but only within reason.
And war is the ultimate reality-driven enterprise. You can’t “spin” your way to military victory.
Should the events on the ground go favorably, the Tucker Carlson wing of MAGA will be discredited. They promised an Iranian attack would lead to World War III. They swore thousands of Americans would die. They blasted everyone who disagreed with them as a “warmonger.”
If they’re wrong, they’ll look like clowns. (Or foreign stooges.) Why would you trust anything they say anymore?
It puts them in the unenviable PR position of having to root for American failure. Otherwise, it’s not just the Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan that went up in flames: So did their credibility.
But if they’re right, the Republican Party will join the Democratic Party in abandoning Israel: The conclusion will be, the Jews are more trouble than they’re worth. It’ll mark the permanent dissolution of the U.S.-Israeli alliance.
There’ll be a bipartisan consensus: It’s not in America’s national interest to continue the relationship. (“It’s not you, it’s me.”)
Blame Israel.
Writing tomorrow’s history books is rife with peril, because it’s impossible to contextualize fast-moving events. For example, October 8, 2023 was the day after the Hamas-led (and Iranian-backed) sneak attack on Israeli civilians, where 1,200 were slaughtered and 250 were kidnapped, raped, abducted, and tortured. At the time, it certainly seemed like Iran was a nation on the rise — and Israel was in decline.
In retrospect, it was the last gasp of Iranian power. Because, ever since then, it’s been one unmitigated disaster after another: Hamas was crushed. Hezbollah suffered “death by beepers.” Syria collapsed; Bashar al-Assad is now under house-arrest in Russia. The Houthis withered. The Russians have their hands tied in Ukraine. All the Iranian proxies and allies were neutralized!
And now they’ve lost their air defense, most of their missile launchers, most of their military leadership, AND a nuclear program that cost ‘em $500 billion.
Regimes have toppled for much less than this.
But alas, they’ve also survived much more. And a secretive, repressive regime, like the fundamentalist Islamists in Iran, is impossible to predict. This could still go many different ways.
If the Biden administration’s open-border policy led to a secret ground invasion of Iranian agents, this could get ugly. With a black ops budget of just $10 million, Iran could potentially plant sleeper cells across the U.S., quietly stockpiling explosives and drone components. The nature of warfare is evolving; everything is getting smaller, more mobile, and more asymmetrical. That’s one of the lessons from Ukraine, Hezbollah, and now Iran.
In a big, open country like America, there’s much that can be exploited. We need to stay on our toes.
The PR fallout, you see, will depend on the literal fallout. And that, dear reader, is entirely unresolved.
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