As the ancient prophecy warned us, “In the beginning, good always overpowered the evils of all man’s sins. But in time, the nations grew weak and our cities fell to slums, while evil stood strong. In the dusts of Hell lurked the blackest of hates, for He whom they feared awaited them… It has been written, ‘Those who have the youth have the future.’”
Unfortunately, this (snappy) prophecy isn’t from the Bible. It’s actually from Mötley Crüe. (Alas, some of their other “prophecies” weren’t exactly profound either.)
In politics, it’s NOT the youth who have the future. Typically, it’s the old guy who’s next in line. (Cough, Joe Biden, cough.) In a well-organized political party, that’s usually the norm.
Not just Democrats either: It’s how guys like Bob Dole were nominated in the GOP, too.
Politics is far different than pro sports. You don’t scout a young prospect, develop him, and hope he matures into your new franchise player! Instead, political parties are organizations — and over time, organizations tend to protect and promote insiders over outsiders. They become insular.
Which makes ‘em vulnerable to outside disruption.
That’s the paradox of our two-party political system: When the party’s machinery is clicking, churning, and running like a charm, it’s an old man’s game. Seniority is all-important; power goes to whoever’s next in line.
Everything is predictable.
But when the party’s machinery collapses, it creates a power vacuum. And then, the opposite happens: Power goes to the most compelling outsider.
When outsiders have the edge, to paraphrase the Book of Crüe, “Those who have the biggest, most enthusiastic fanbase have the future.” It’s happened to both parties over the last 15-or-so years, first with the Obama movement in ’08 and then the MAGA revolution in ’16.
Both times, an outside movement hijacked the status quo.
So we know the future of the Democratic Party won’t be a guy like Cory Booker. GOP pollster Frank Luntz created a few headlines this week, proclaiming the New Jersey senator the “leading Democrat candidate for 2028,” primarily due to his 25-hour senate speech.
But Luntz is very, very wrong.
A politician like Booker simply isn’t charismatic enough to electrify the base as an outsider, and he’s not entrenched enough to take the reins as an insider (yet). His best bet is to stay in the Senate, build seniority, and try to be next in line when the party’s organizational power returns in 2032.
In the “insider” lane, the top candidate is Kamala Harris. (At this point, she might be the only insider left.) Of all the big-named Democrats for the party’s donors, powerbrokers, and “professional activists” to throw their support behind, Kamala Harris still makes the most sense.
By a wide margin, too.
A short stint as California’s governor would allow her to rebuild her bona fides. (And then, golly gee, when her admirers beg and plead her to ‘rescue America’ and run for president in 2028, what’s a girl to do?)
Losing the 2024 election hurts her, but not as much as it once did. There’s an emerging narrative in liberal circles: It was all Old Man Biden’s fault! That narrative will likely grow, mostly because the ex-president is too mentally decrepit to defend himself, and the pro-Harris camp has a vested interest in aggressively promoting it. In another year’s time, the 2024 loss will (mostly) be blamed on Biden.
That bodes well for Kamala.
Right now, 58% of Democrats would consider voting for Harris in 2028 — far more than any other candidate. Sure, that’s mostly a byproduct of her name recognition, but in politics, name recognition matters.
Kamala Harris will ultimately sink or swim on her own merits, but she’s the best-armed Donkey. By a wide margin, too!
It’s still her nomination to lose.
In the “outsider” lane, there’s one star in the liberal sky that outshines all others. She’s young, attractive, ethnic, and passionate. Of all the potential 2028 candidates, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is all alone in pole position.
The same survey that showed 58% of Democrats would consider Harris showed that 38% would also consider AOC. At first glance, that’s a 20-point deficit.
But first glances can be deceiving: In addition to the 38% who’d consider AOC, another 36% would consider her mentor, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Presumably, when the 80-something socialist senator declines to run in 2028, AOC will inherit the lion’s share of his support.
That’ll put her neck-and-neck with Kamala Harris.
It’s not Cory Booker, but those two women — AOC and Kamala Harris — who are the future of the party.
Getcha popcorn ready.
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