First Fear: Is the fix in?
Eight years ago, 55% of Republicans had faith in the accuracy and integrity of our presidential elections — not a huge majority, but a majority nonetheless. By 2020, that number had dropped to 44%. And today, in 2024, it’s only 28%.
To put that number in perspective, in 1984, ABC’s primetime news show “20/20” did an exposé on pro wrestling. (The infamous episode when John Stossel had the snot slapped out of him by wrestler Dave Schultz.) ABC conducted an informal poll and determined that 25% of wrestling fans thought it was real.
So… the percentage of Republicans who still believe are elections are “real” is basically the same as 80s-era pro wrasslin’ true-believers! (And we know how that turned out.)
When less than three out of ten Republicans believe our elections are fair and legitimate, it’s not just a problem; it’s an existential crisis. Furthermore, I don’t think we’ve hit rock bottom yet. If weird pro-Harris shenanigans are detected that cost Trump the election, the Republican percentage will shrink to the single digits.
We can’t maintain a functional, two-party democracy if 90-plus percent of one party believes the fix is in.
Of course, the GOP (and MAGA’s legal staff) have now had four long years to study the autopsy of the 2020 election and pursue tactical remedies. It’s not like this election has snuck up on them.
But is it enough?
Second Fear: Has the projection model changed?
All election forecasts are based on predictions, and all predictions are based on profiles. “Experts” then plug in the latest numbers and extrapolate meanings. For the most part, their formula has been rather straightforward: Get enough people on the phone whose demos correlated with the electorate, ask ‘em questions, and publish the results. It wasn’t perfect, but usually, enough polls over enough time would give you a fairly decent projection.
At least, they used to — back when people still talked to strangers on landlines. But this is 2024. We’re living in a radically different culture yet still relying on the formulas of yesteryear.
Garbage in, garbage out: a flawed formula will give you flawed results.
Additionally, we know GOP voters are hitting the polls earlier than before — the age of everyone waiting for Election Day is officially over. (Full disclosure: I voted over the weekend, too.) GOP early voting has exponentially increased.
Will this mean we’ll receive far fewer votes on Election Day? If so, how much fewer?
The 2020 MAGA strategy was to build an Election Day lead that’s so large and so unsurmountable, those harder-to-authenticate mail-in ballots couldn’t overcome it. That strategy failed. But unless we’re picking up scores of new voters, simply dividing our vote between mail-in and in-person won’t change the final results.
It’s a numbers game. We need bigger numbers.
Third Fear: How good is our ground campaign — and how good is their ground campaign?
PR has a fatal flaw in the closing days of a presidential campaign: It tracks perception, not reality. If the perception is that Trump has a lead, a PR pro can quickly detect it. But if the reality is that the perception was wrong, PR will lead you astray with false positives.
PR operates on the theory that when people lie, they’re actually telling you the truth about what they want you to believe. Usually, their language and positioning expose their intent.
Usually.
But if the Democrats are sitting on a well-orchestrated ground game that works tirelessly to get out the vote — and MAGA isn't — PR won’t pick it up. It’s not within our purview. My crystal ball is useless.
We won’t know until it’s too late.
Please don’t misunderstand: I’m not saying any of these fears WILL come true. I still think there’s about a 60% likelihood of Trump winning the election, and a 55(ish)% chance of enough swing states breaking MAGA that it’s an electoral landslide.
In poker parlance, we have a very good hand. More often than not, this hand is better than your opponent’s. Most of the time, poker players with our hand will go home a winner.
But I’d be lying if I said we’re sitting on a royal flush.
Related: Growing Signs of a Trump Landslide: Has the Media Tipped Its Hand?
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