Yes, it was a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad interview for Kamala Harris. Yes, the hole she's in just got a little bit deeper. But the hyperbolic squeals of MAGA delight aren’t reflective of what actually happened, and it’s important to temper expectations.
Misplaced confidence is just as dangerous as misplaced pessimism. Instead, our goal must be unrelenting, unflinching realism.
And realistically, Kamala’s debacle with Bret Baier wasn’t a game-changer whatsoever. At best, there was a smidgen of movement in the margins, but nothing more than that. For better or worse, the song remains the same.
Here’s why: The two worst national TV appearances in the last 35 years by high-level politicians were John Stockdale, Ross Perot’s choice for VP, in the 1992 vice presidential debate, and Joe Biden during his 2024 debate against Donald Trump.
Stockdale was mercilessly mocked and ridiculed for being hard of hearing and giving meandering, disjointed answers. At one point, he even asked the moderator to repeat a question because he got annoyed and turned his hearing aids off! Admittedly, it was an abysmal appearance, but it’s a shame that the American people were largely unaware that the reason Stockdale was half-deaf was because he was an honest-to-God war hero who suffered unspeakable abuses in a Vietnam POW camp.
Stockdale’s woes aren’t really applicable here; he was a VP candidate for an oddball third-party candidate, so his impact was always going to be limited.
But what happened after Biden’s 2024 debate meltdown is highly illuminating: 54% of Democrats actually said that Joe Biden won! In fact, after revealing the advanced state of his mental decline on national TV, claiming, “We finally beat Medicare!” and staring aimlessly with his mouth agape, the following day, Biden was still leading Trump 45% to 44%.
If you’re still expecting large, wild swings in the polls, you’re gonna be disappointed. They’re just not in the cards anymore.
Sorry.
For the Trump brand, there’s virtually no elasticity left. Voters have already decided whether or not they love Trump — or hate Trump — or fall somewhere in the middle. Even if Harris grew a Hitler mustache and started quoting "Mein Kampf," the polling difference would mostly be muted. The numbers are already baked in.
Harris is in a different category because her brand identity is less established. There’s more elasticity — more potential for shifts. But because her opponent isn’t “elastic” at all, there’s not going to be much change in the polling of a (binary) race — up or down.
Instead, disfavor with Harris will most likely manifest itself in diminished Democratic turnout and flattened enthusiasm. (Not a bad consolation prize at all.)
The bottom line?
Kamala Harris laid an egg on national TV. She embarrassed herself and came across as petty, rude, and unprepared, and it wasn’t at all helpful for her campaign. But waaaay too many Republicans are breaking out their party shoes, convinced that the election is now in the bag: All that’s left is dancing at the inaugural ball!
It’s not in the bag. And as badly as Kamala performed, it wasn’t nearly as bad as Biden’s performance against Trump. So don’t expect her to suffer more than Biden because of it.
Fortunately for Harris, the Democratic National Convention is in the rearview mirror. (Otherwise, there really could be blowback!) But we’re just 19 days from the election. The Democrats are stuck with her — and they know it.
But if the Republicans think the election’s now over and don’t bother to vote, we’ll ALL be stuck with her.
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