It’s a quote often attributed to F. Scott Fitzgerald’s "The Great Gatsby," but Ernest Hemingway originally popularized it. In "The Sun Also Rises," a character named Mike describes how he went bankrupt. “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”
It’s true for bankruptcies, but it’s even more true for politics.
Everything has a tipping point. When it comes to public policy, things don’t move until they’re pushed—but if you push hard enough and frequently enough, eventually, they won’t just move; they’ll break.
There’s never a wonderful time to catch COVID, but for Biden, the timing couldn’t have been worse: Trump gets shot, stands tall, and rallies the nation to fight with him. Meanwhile, Biden reminded voters (yet again) that he’s a sick, elderly man with a weak, feeble immune system, and it’s simply not realistic to assume he’ll be able to function at an acceptable level for another four months, let alone another four years.
The perceptual takeaway: Trump is so tough that when he gets shot, Biden gets sick!
The pressure campaign to force Biden out had stagnated after Trump was nearly assassinated. For a brief, flickering moment, the nation yearned for stability and order, and Biden happily assumed the role of mourner-in-chief. Politically, it was his last best chance to frame himself as the grownup in the room – the steady hand on the wheel with the wisdom, moral clarity, and temperament to guide an America in freefall to a safe emergency landing.
And he went after it with gusto, going on live TV twice, including an Oval Office address. It even seemed to work for a few days: The voices demanding that Biden step down had abated.
But it didn’t last.
It couldn’t last.
The Democrats weren’t temporarily holding their fire because they changed their minds about Biden being mentally unfit; they held their fire because Trump was nearly murdered, and there wasn’t enough oxygen in the room for both stories. Something had to give.
It began with a trickle. At first, a few outside voices, primarily from the “pundit class,” called for Biden to resign from the race. Then, the number began to grow. Next, sitting Democratic congressmen broke rank and went public. That number is now at roughly ten percent.
The next shoe(s) to drop will be senior Democratic politicians and legacy leadership: Pelosi, Schumer, Obama(s), and Clinton(s). It’s been reported that Pelosi and Schumer have already asked Biden to reconsider his candidacy behind the scenes, telling him point-blank that he can’t win in November. That’s the final step before going public.
And eventually, they WILL go public. It’s not a question of if but when.
Biden still has a few aces to play: Legally, he can’t be forced out of the race (beyond the 25th Amendment). He owns the platform because he owns the delegates. It’s certainly within his power to ignore anyone and everyone who advises him to quit. If he flat-out decides he’s not going to leave, then he’s not going to leave.
Interestingly, if you listen to Democrats, they’re now saying the quiet part out loud. They’re not pressuring Biden to quit because it’s the right thing to do or because it’s best for the American people. Instead, they’re insisting that Biden must leave… because the rich liberal donors have stopped writing checks.
It’s a stunningly – and shockingly – brazen admission. Most political parties would be ashamed to admit they’re bought and paid for by special interests! Even fewer would be so beholden to money that they’d excommunicate a sitting president who had enjoyed sky-high approval ratings from his left-wing supporters just the previous month.
This would never happen in the GOP. Not in a million years. Even if all the mega-donors sat on their wallets, the Republicans wouldn’t sever ties with Trump. That’s not how the Republican Party – or MAGA voters – are wired. But the Left isn’t concerned about loyalty to politicians or to voters – only loyalty to money.
Timing-wise, the Democrats' smartest PR move would’ve been to announce that Biden was stepping down 24 hours before Trump’s speech. The spotlight would have been taken off Trump, the news cycle would've gotten a (much-needed) reboot, and the GOP would now be scrambling to reconfigure its strategy.
But now it’s too late. And it’s probably too late for the Democrats, too.
In politics (and in financial markets), everything is slow, steady, linear, and gradual – right until it’s not. Because when it breaks, it breaks fast.
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