If Venezuela Falls, Do Cuba and Nicaragua Go With It?

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado appeared on "Fox Noticias" with Rachel Campos-Duffy on Wednesday, and she said something that caught my attention. After optimistically explaining why she believes the man who should be president, Edmundo González, can take over the role peacefully and somewhat smoothly if Nicolás Maduro falls, she repeated something she's been saying for so long: "We will make Venezuela the United States' primary security, trade, and energy ally in the region."

She added:

And what will come will be prosperity, democracy, and freedom, because when Maduro leaves, the Cuban regime and the Nicaraguan regime will also fall. And for the first time in history, we will have the Americas free of communism and dictatorship.

Call me an optimist, too, but I think she's correct. At first glance, it may sound absurd, I know, but there are facts that support this idea.

Venezuela Is the Backbone

First, yes, we have to start with the oil and a few basics. Venezuela has the largest oil reserve of any country in the world. A few decades ago, it was an incredibly prosperous nation, yet today, its people are starving, fleeing, or turning to crime. Despite the vast amount of reserves, production has dropped, mostly due to corruption.

Maduro, like Hugo Chávez before him, used oil like currency. He sold it to Cuba, Nicaragua, and other Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) countries in the Caribbean and Latin America at a discounted rate in exchange for political allegiance and other favors. For example, Cuba might send doctors and other medical personnel to Venezuela as part of its exploitative forced labor program.

By the way, a quick note on ALBA: It was founded in 2004 by Chavez and Fidel Castro to keep the United States out of the region. Rubio has been in favor of dismantling it for years by "reengaging energetically" (something he now appears to have the freedom to do).

Rather than using the oil profits to run the country, Maduro uses them to fund his Cartel de los Soles' smuggling and trafficking operations, prop up his regime, and line his own pockets.

I'm oversimplifying all of this a bit, but you get the gist. Basically, without Venezuela's oil, these two countries' economies don't have a leg to stand on. Sort of.

Cuba's Dependence

Cuba's economy is already fragile. In 2024, it declined by 1.1% and experts project that it will continue. Cubans live a bleak reality fraught with day-long blackouts, a lack of water, and garbage-filled streets. In 2011, Cuba received 96,000 barrels per day of oil from Venezuela. CNN reports that the Caribbean nation now gets about a third of that. While it used the oil for its own energy needs, it also refined and sold it to other nations to make a profit.

In exchange for the oil, Cuba provides Venezuela with various services. As I mentioned, one of those services is medical care through Cuba's forced labor programs, which are sometimes compared to modern-day slavery. This year, the Trump administration has taken actions against those programs, including issuing visa restrictions for Cuban officials responsible for them and third-country officials who participate.

The United States is expanding its Cuba-related visa restriction policy. @StateDept has taken steps to restrict visa issuance to Cuban and complicit third-country government officials and individuals responsible for Cuba’s exploitative labor export program. We will promote…
— Secretary Marco Rubio (@SecRubio) February 25, 2025

In addition to the medical program, Cuba provides Venezuela with military and intelligence training. According to Reuters, this idea was born in 2007 when Chavez did not do well at the polls. Castro wanted him to stay in power, but they feared that Venezuela's military would stage a coup. So, Castro and Chavez came to an agreement that would give Cuba access to spy on Venezuela's military and "revamp" it, if you will.

According to Reuters, "Under Cuban military advisors, Venezuela refashioned the intelligence unit into a service that spies on its own armed forces, instilling fear and paranoia and quashing dissent." Cuba's own military went on to train Venezuelan soldiers and intelligence agents.

Ultimately, Maduro's fall could have a tremendous negative impact on Cuba's economy and lead to further isolation from the U.S. and other countries.

Nicaragua's Dependence

In 2025, Nicaragua's relationship with Venezuela is more diplomatic than transactional. The country was once heavily dependent on Venezuela's oil, but these days, it gets its supply from a variety of other non-ALBA sources. Back when Nicaragua was a recipient of Venezuela's oil, Daniel Ortega resold it and used the profits to buy his support and suppress his dissent, as well as undermine U.S. sanctions.

But Maduro and the Ortega-Rosario Murillo regime remain chummy. In 2024, when Maduro stole the election, Ortega offered to send Sandinista "fighters" to Venezuela to help him out in the event that there was an "armed counterrevolution." As I wrote over the weekend, various sources say that Maduro knows his days are numbered, and he plans to escape to Nicaragua when the time comes. Reportedly, he's already moving his family and various assets to the Central American country; one of his personal planes landed in Managua twice within 10 days in August. Of course, none of this is confirmed.

Seemingly, Cuba is the most vulnerable and has much more to lose — and would do so sooner rather than later — if Venezuela finally sees the end of Chavismo. But without the backing of ALBA, the Ortega-Murillo regime could weaken, and internal dissent that is already on the rise could grow even stronger, especially in the wake of all the changes happening throughout the Western Hemisphere.

The Wildcards: Russia and China

Russia loves it some ALBA nations. It has provided diplomatic support in various ways, such as using its position at the United Nations to block resolutions against these countries. It has also provided these nations with billions of dollars' worth of military arms and training, although that has dwindled in more recent years. No doubt it will continue to support these far-left dictators, but is it enough? Russia's economy is weak due to the war with Ukraine, so it probably couldn't provide the financial support a country like Cuba would need to make up for the loss of Maduro.

Unfortunately, that's where China comes into play. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, "China’s role in Latin America and the Caribbean has grown rapidly since the turn of the century, promising economic opportunity but also raising concerns over Beijing’s influence. China’s state firms are major investors in the region’s energy, infrastructure, and space industries, and the country has surpassed the United States as South America’s largest trading partner. Beijing has also expanded its cultural, diplomatic, and military presence throughout the region."

While it's not one of the countries in question, thank goodness, I spend a lot of time in Costa Rica, and I've witnessed firsthand China's footprint there and how the citizens of that country are somewhat impressed but do not trust it. They're much more comfortable doing business with U.S. citizens and companies.

China's investments come with strings attached. Their loans are high-interest debt traps, and their finished projects are not always so great. Back in February, when Rubio traveled to the Caribbean, he spoke about that during a press conference with Suriname's president at the time, Chan Santokhi. He mentioned driving on a road that the Chinese built in Guyana that was so bad that it nearly gave him a concussion. "It was terrible," he said. "They paid these people to build this road, and then they bring their workers. They bring their workers. They don't hire you. They bring their workers in to do all the work or they want you to borrow a bunch of money, and then they hold it over your head."

His point was that these countries deserve an alternative to that, that alternative being the United States. If Maduro falls, Machado's prediction comes true, and González successfully takes his place, it seems as if Venezuela is ready and willing to partner up with the U.S. to ensure a partnership that adds to the prosperity of both nations, but will Cuba and Nicaragua eventually follow?

Do Cuba and Nicaragua Follow?

I'll be totally honest here: China is what scares me in all of this. As I responded to someone on X last night, "I just want to see one big beautiful free allied Western Hemisphere where no one is oppressed by communism and organized crime, and China gets an 'exit' sign."

Every time the Trump administration sanctions one of these ALBA countries, especially Cuba, I wonder what would stop China from moving into the region even more than it already has. We definitely don't need some sort of CCP territory 90 miles from our own shores. If I had an hour to pick Rubio's brain on any topic, this would be it.

Rubio has said himself that, "The history of the 21st century will largely be about what happened between the U.S. and China." A strong and allied Western Hemisphere could be a huge part of that history, and I know the secretary thinks so, too.

So, if Venezuela falls, do Cuba and Nicaragua go with it? Of course, only time will tell. While it's optimistic and would be something for the history books, it's not impossible. And if anyone can make it happen, I believe it's Donald Trump. His leadership and ability to get things done, combined with Rubio's expertise and guiding hand, could just be the combination that finally works.

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