Roger’s Rules

What States Will Obama Win? (First in a Series)

For some months, I have been predicting that Romney would not only win but win big.  I have a number of lunches and other small wagers riding on the outcome, so I have been cheered by Team Romney’s meteoric rise in the polls recently.

I  understand the wisdom of Yogi Berra’s observation that it’s not over till it’s over. Harold Wilson was surely right that a week is a long time in politics.

Still, while not exactly counting the chickens before they hatch, I am drawing up a menu that features poulet for the main course. I think there will be plenty to go around.

How much, exactly?  Well, now we enter the realm of the parlor game. But I observe that people actually pay good money to places like the Gallup organization to do this sort of thing, so I thought I would take a shot at it too.

The lay of the land will be a lot clearer, I suspect, Monday at 11:01 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. And I will have occasion to return to this theme from time to time and offer updated guesses (for between you and me, Kemo Sabe, that’s what we’re talking about in all this commentary about the election, guesses). But for now, here’s how I see things shaking out.  It will be much quicker to list the states that I think Obama will win, adding alongside the number of Electoral College votes they command. Starting from beyond the Left coast:

  1. Hawaii (4)
  2. Washington (12)
  3. Oregon (7)
  4. California (55)
  5. New Mexico (5)
  6. Illinois (20)
  7. Michigan (16)
  8. Iowa (6)
  9. New York (29)
  10. Washington, DC (3)
  11. Maryland (10)
  12. Delaware (3)
  13. New Jersey (14)
  14. Connecticut (7)
  15. Rhode Island (4)
  16. Massachusetts (11)
  17. Vermont (3)
  18. Maine (4)

That’s seventeen states and one enfranchised dependent sinkhole for a grand total of 223 electoral votes, leaving Mitt Romney with 33 states and 315 electoral votes.  I acknowledge that Wisconsin (10) might go to Obama as of course might Ohio (18). But 315 – 28 = 287, i.e., Romney still wins. [Update: I forgot Minnesota: another possible, indeed, likely, 10 for Obama: Romney still gets at least 277.]

There are obviously variations on this scenario.  Most that I ponder have Romney winning, and winning comfortably,  And let’s not forget that there are other scenarios that put Michigan and Iowa (and maybe even others)  into play.

I believe President Obama likes to make guesses about who will basketball games.  Here’s my first entry into a kindred psephological pastime.

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