Secularists have been predicting the end of faith in America almost since the nation's founding. It was initially disguised as a "separation of powers" argument. Jefferson created a private version of the New Testament, The Life and Morals of Jesus of Nazareth, removing all supernatural elements to focus purely on Jesus's moral teachings as a secular ethical guide.
Thomas Paine was even more radical in his philosophy. The great essayist of the American Revolution wrote The Age of Reason in 1794, where he attacked institutionalized religion and promoted Deism, the belief in a creator based on reason rather than revelation. He argued that "all national institutions of churches... appear to me no other than human inventions set up to terrify and enslave mankind."
That's quicker than almost any major religious shift in modern U.S. history, and it's happening across racial groups."
First, it should be noted that a 2024 Gallup poll shows that U.S. religious affiliation has stabilized, with roughly 69% identifying as Christian (45% Protestant/Nondenominational, 21% Catholic). "Unaffiliated" in this instance refers to Americans not belonging to any traditional sect or church.
PRRI also found that 38% of Americans aged 18-29 identify as "religiously unaffiliated." Practically speaking, what does this mean? Is it a permanent state of affairs?
America's religious fervor has waxed and waned over the last 300 years. There have been at least three "Great Awakenings" in American history, where large numbers of people prioritized emotional, personal experience over formal doctrine or church hierarchy.
The First Great Awakening (1730s–1740s) involved a series of Christian revivals that swept through the British American colonies, led by figures like Jonathan Edwards and George Whitefield.
The Second Great Awakening (1790s–1840s) was known for its massive outdoor "camp meetings" and the rise of denominations such as the Baptists and Methodists. This era also fueled reform movements such as abolition and temperance.
The rise of urban revivals marked the Third Great Awakening (1850s–1920s), the Social Gospel movement, and the global expansion of missionary work.
Preceding each "Great Awakening" was a perceived spiritual decline or a measurable fall-off in religious participation. When it comes to faith and belief, nothing in America is "permanent."
Gen Z is no less searching for answers than other generations before them. They're just not finding them in traditional sects and churches.
YouTube videos of speeches by the late agnostic and astronomer Carl Sagan and atheist and biologist Richard Dawkins attacking religion have drawn millions of views.
Devotees to unofficial Catholic Latino folk saints such as Santa Muerte and Jesús Malverde have also become increasingly prominent outside official religion, with tens of millions of devotees across the Americas.
AI and chatbot technology are being used by millions for spiritual guidance, confession and prayer, with apps like Bible Chat reaching more than 30 million downloads.
"The old religious map is disappearing," says Axios. "The new one — digital, more secular, decentralized and deeply fragmented — is only beginning to take shape."
What this means for politics is unclear. For both parties, churches have been the easiest way to reach large numbers of people. Now, according to denominational reports and church consultants, as Axios reported, about 15,000 churches will close their doors this year. "The shift in religious activity is also leaving behind a trail of 'church graveyards, or empty buildings that are now difficult to sell or have been abandoned," reports the website.
Churches are more than places of worship. They have always been the center of any community or neighborhood, where people would attend meetings, vote, or participate in town halls.
Perhaps eventually, Gen Z and others who have left organized religions will find that what they're really missing is a sense of spiritual belonging; a feeling of being with others who share their values and who comfort each other during the bad times and celebrate together in good times.
They're not going to find that in Richard Dawkins' sneering lectures or new age mysticism. Perhaps when they do find it, it will have been right in front of them all along.
