A year ago last week, Syrian rebels overthrew the odious regime of President Bashar al-Assad. The Assad father and son ruled Syria with brutality and fear for more than 50 years, murdering at least 500,000 people and stealing untold billions.
The Assad family and the Makhlouf clan's total wealth could be as high as $120 billion. They control around $16 billion in assets, including 200 tons of gold and billions of euros, or an estimated £45-95 billion in assets, according to the Syria Observatory for Human Rights.
Last week, there were nationwide celebrations in Syria with fireworks and patriotic speeches from politicians to mark the occasion. President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda chieftain and enforcer of radical Sharia law, is singing a much different tune now. "Billboards, with slogans like 'One country, one people' and 'The dark era is over,' lined the streets, reminding people of what they had endured — and what they were now celebrating," reports the New York Times.
The U.S. and most of the West have gone "all in" on believing in Sharaa's new leaf. He's making all the right noises about women's rights and pluralism. Let's see if he follows through.
Meanwhile, Bashar al-Assad is sitting in Moscow, the honored guest of his former patrone, President Vladimir Putin. Putin would dearly love to see Assad, or someone equally pliable, in power again and is apparently doing everything he can to make that happen.
"Two of the men once closest to Assad, Maj. Gen. Kamal Hassan and billionaire Rami Makhlouf, are competing to form militias in coastal Syria and Lebanon made up of members of their minority Alawite sect, long associated with the Assad family," Reuters reports.
The Alawites, a minor sect of Islam, and the Druze minorities have already rebelled against the new regime. It's believed that the two Assad loyalists have created a 50,000-strong Alawite and Druze militia that could threaten the new regime if they are better supplied and funded.
For the moment, a key Bashar Assad ally, his brother Maher, is sitting on the sidelines trying to decide which way to jump. There's something to be said for having survived the coup that overthrew his brother. He may not be so lucky the next time.
"One prize for Hassan and Makhlouf is control of a network of 14 underground command rooms built around coastal Syria toward the end of Assad’s rule, as well as weapons caches," reports Reuters. The wire service says they've seen photos of the command rooms, chock full of weapons. U.S. intelligence confirms the weapons caches, demonstrating that President Sharaa should probably not get very comfortable.
Hassan, who was Bashar’s military intelligence chief, has been tirelessly making calls and sending voice messages to commanders and advisors. In them, he seethes about his lost influence and outlines grandiose visions of how he would rule coastal Syria, home to the majority of Syria’s Alawite population and Assad’s former powerbase
Makhlouf, a cousin of the Assads, once used his business empire to fund the dictator during the civil war, only to run afoul of his more powerful relatives and wind up under years of house arrest. He now portrays himself in conversations and messages as a messianic figure who will return to power after ushering in an apocalyptic final battle.
From their exiles in Moscow, Hassan and Makhlouf envision a fractured Syria, and each wants control of the Alawite-majority areas. Both have spent millions of dollars in competing efforts to build forces, Reuters found. Their deputies are in Russia, Lebanon and the United Arab Emirates.
“This is an extension of the Assad regime’s power struggle,” said Annsar Shahhoud, a researcher who studied the dictatorship for more than a decade. “This competition continues now, but instead of the goal being to please Assad, the focus is on finding his replacement and controlling the Alawite community.”
Assad appears resigned to his fate, according to the Reuters report. So far, there doesn't appear to be a strong, unifying personality who could unite factions against Sharaa and retake control of at least part of Syria.
For now, the prospects of a successful uprising seem low.
Chief plotters Hassan and Makhlouf are virulently at odds with one another. Their hopes are fading to win backing from Russia, once Assad’s most powerful political and military supporter. Many Alawites in Syria, who also suffered under Assad, mistrust the pair. And the new government is working to stymie their plans.
In a brief statement in response to the Reuters findings, the government’s Alawite point man al-Ahmad said the “work of healing – of uprooting sectarian hatred and honoring the dead – remains the only path toward a Syria that can live with itself again.”
Hassan claims control of 12,000 fighters, while Makhlouf claims control of at least 54,000, according to their factions’ internal documents. Commanders on the ground said fighters are paid a pittance and taking money from both sides.
The exiles don't appear to have mobilized any forces yet. Reuters could not confirm the fighter figures or determine specific action plans. Tartous governor Al-Shami said potential fighters numbered in the tens of thousands.
The Alawite militias do not lack for funds, and while Putin may be taking a wait-and-see attitude toward the new Syrian government, he will take advantage of any opening he sees to regain his strategic position in Syria. The government is shaky and is opposed on several fronts, including the large Kurdish minority that did not celebrate the one-year anniversary of Assad's downfall, preferring to bide their time, hoping to unite with fellow Kurds in neighboring Lebanon and Iraq to carve out their own country.
Sharaa is forced to behave himself and at least act like a Westernized leader for the present. We'll see how long that lasts if his position becomes stronger.
