Initial assessments of the damage done to Iran's nuclear facilities by the June 21 U.S. strike were optimistic. Donald Trump said that the three uranium enrichment plants in Iran were "obliterated" and the stockpile of highly enriched uranium was destroyed.
But weeks later, a classified intelligence assessment of the strike claimed two of the three targets were damaged but not seriously. The officer who leaked the report was fired after another analysis by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which claimed that most of the 18,000 centrifuges operated by Iran to enrich uranium were destroyed either in bomb blasts or when the very sensitive machines lost power. Restoring Iran's enrichment capability will "require the construction of entirely new facilities, rather than simply repairing existing ones," according to the IAEA.
An independent assessment of the damage by the Institute for Science and International Security has confirmed much of the initial analysis. David Albright, who founded the organization in the 1990s, says, “For the first time in over 15 years, no breakout estimate to weapon-grade uranium (WGU) is included in our reporting on the IAEA reports." In other words, “Iran has no identifiable route to produce weapon-grade uranium in its centrifuge plants.”
"Obliterated."
JUST PUBLISHED our Institute analysis of the quarterly IAEA Iran reports. The reports are the first since the 12-Day War in June, when Israel and the United States attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, causing substantial damage and destruction to Iran’s sensitive nuclear sites.…
— David Albright (@DAVIDHALBRIGHT1) September 8, 2025
The use of the heavy-duty bunker-buster bombs was intended to take out Tehran’s facilities, particularly the Fordow uranium enrichment plant, which was believed to be out of Israel’s reach to destroy.
Shortly after the attack, Trump, 79, quickly proclaimed that Midnight Hammer had rendered Iran’s nuclear program “completely and totally obliterated,” but skeptics raised concerns about jumping to conclusions before a final damage assessment was finished.
The institute’s analysis determined that the “attacks caused immense destruction to Iran’s ability to make the nuclear weapon itself.” It also stressed that there “are no indications that Iran moved stocks outside of these three sites” that were bombed.
“The military attacks destroyed or made inoperative all of Iran’s installed centrifuges — almost 22,000 gas centrifuges — at Iran’s three enrichment sites,” the analysis said.
The destruction of Iran's ability to enrich uranium may have directly led to its acceptance of IAEA inspectors being allowed to enter its nuclear facilities. The agency and Iran agreed to a deal in Egypt that will eventually lead to restarting the inspections regime interrupted by Israel's war with Iran.
An agreement by France, Great Britain, and Germany to "snap back" sanctions that were lifted after the 2015 Obama nuclear deal was implemented also prodded Iran. The three powers gave Iran 30 days from Aug. 28 to demonstrate the desire to make a deal with the United States that would eliminate its ability to enrich uranium.
Recommended: The Cost of 'Green Forest Management' to Protect Tigers is Killing Humans
The one unknown factor is the whereabouts of the 600 pounds of highly enriched uranium (HEU) that Iran possessed prior to the U.S. strike. It was placed underground at one of the destroyed nuclear sites and is assumed to be under thousands of tons of rubble.
The IAEA says it will be able to determine if that stockpile of HEU was destroyed or where it might be.
The events set in motion by the strike on Iran's nuclear facilities have world-altering consequences that will be felt for years to come.
Help PJ Media continue to tell the truth about the Trump administration's accomplishments as we usher in the Golden Era of America. Become a PJ Media VIP and use promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your membership.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member