Unrest in Iran has only gotten worse since the 12-day war with Israel ended a month ago. Whatever legitimacy the regime maintained prior to the beginning of Israel's raids on Iran's nuclear infrastructure has disappeared as a result of soaring inflation, a stock market crash, and serious capital flight.
The Iranian economy is prostrate. Inflation is running at nearly 40% in a nation where more than half the population is living below the poverty line. As the economic conditions worsen, capital is fleeing the country at record levels. Over the past two years, an estimated $20 billion has left the country annually. The entire Iranian economy is valued at just $340 billion.
"Customs data show that last month non-oil exports fell by 12 percent and imports plunged by 34 percent compared to June last year," reports the Middle East Forum.
Unless Iran shows signs of being willing to discuss the end of their nuclear program, sanctions that were in place prior to the 2015 nuclear deal with the West will "snap back" into place, dealing a potential death blow to the Islamic Republic.
In the face of all this weakness and crises, where is the Iranian opposition? Why can't they organize a serious rebellion?
An examination of Iran's internal security apparatus holds part of the answer. Perhaps only Communist China has a more effective, more comprehensive, more stifling machinery of oppression than Iran. In 2007, the Iranian government established a provincial guard to "better streamline coordination between military and security units in every Iranian province." Each province has the ability to respond to protests and other trouble on its own, without direction from Tehran.
This kind of layering has proven to be incredibly effective at minimizing protests. During the 2022 anti-hijab protests, the provincial guards acted quickly and brutally, descending on demonstrations and breaking them up before they got any momentum.
This makes organizing a nationwide protest movement extremely difficult. The nation also lacks recognizable and charismatic leaders around whom it could rally.
Monarchists might long for the Shah's days, but his son, Prince Reza Pahlavi, isn't inspiring anyone to mount the battlements and bring down the regime. While many Iranians might be nostalgic for the good old days when the Shah was in power, re-establishing the monarchy is not seen as a viable option by the main Iranian opposition groups.
Who, then? The fragmented, bickering factions haven't a clue.Forty-five years later, the Iranian opposition abroad has built nothing comparable. Instead, it has wasted fortunes on numerous grand conferences in European cities and expensive summits in hotel ballrooms, endlessly repeating the same slogans to the same familiar faces—often ending in feuds and deeper fragmentation. While the regime perfected its multi-layered security state, the opposition perfected its ability to bicker on social media and give satellite television interviews. Too many self-proclaimed leaders have become regulars on diaspora talk shows or on endless interviews, recycling old talking points instead of organizing new structures or networks inside Iran. They are commentators more than they are political activists.
Worse, this circus has handed the regime an easy propaganda win: portraying any alternative to the regime as a collection of disconnected, opportunistic narcissists, Don Quixote-type characters who thrive on grants and funds but have no real strategy for the people whose freedom they claim to champion.
The disorganization has led to a sense of hopelessness among the population.
Today, millions of Iranians seethe in silence. They are angry, exhausted, and desperate for change. But they look over their shoulders and see no trusted organization, no plan for what happens the day after, no clear “next step” if they defy the regime and storm a police station. That uncertainty, as much as the regime’s guns, is why the streets fell quiet even after Israel shattered parts of the regime’s military and security machine.
Without leaders to inspire, a clear plan of action, and a willingness to give everything to the cause, the Iranian opposition will remain on the outside looking in.
The regime, shaken by the war, is not in any real danger of losing its grip on the country.
