Most of the Middle East and a majority of Iranians are cheering for regime change in Tehran. The leading Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, has raised its international profile in recent weeks as Maryam Rajavi, president of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), addressed the European Parliament, talking about regime change.
“The solution to this war and crisis lies in the overthrow of this regime and regime change by the Iranian people and their resistance,” Rajavi told a press conference.
The NCRI is the political wing of the People’s Mujahedin of Iran (MEK), which was once designated a terrorist group by the U.S. State Department and is still considered as such by Iran. It certainly talks a democratic game. Its platform includes high-minded ideals and Western-style democracy as a goal.
- Elections founded on the concept of "universal suffrage"
- Fostering a diverse political system with "respect for individual freedoms", "freedom of expression", and "free assembly"
- Eradicating the death penalty
- Separating religious institutions (mosques) from the state, while forbidding religious discrimination
- Complete gender equality for women in Iran
- Modernizing the justice system in Iran, abolishing Sharia law, and introducing reforms that provide new legal protections
How dedicated they are to that agenda remains to be seen.
Rajavi warns against negotiating with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saying the regime “thrives on exporting terrorism and fundamentalism, relentlessly pursues nuclear weapons, and will never relinquish its uranium enrichment program.”
Khamenei, she said, “sees any concession as the quickest path to his own downfall.”
It's one of the least understood aspects of the Iranian gangster state. Khamenei has spent more than 30 years building a power base consisting of loyal military officers; Iranian Revolutionary Guard cadres loyal only to him; a pliant bureaucracy that helps him dole out cash and favors from the business community; and, of course, he sits atop the rickety structure of a clerical-fascist regime where he rules with uncompromising religious fanaticism.
If Khamenei is forced to give up uranium enrichment, a "heart attack" isn't far behind.
Rajavi added, “An alternative cannot be imposed from above, as was done a century ago when Britain installed a monarch by appointment. Nor can it be forced upon the people like the 1953 coup d’etat by the United States.”
“The only viable solution remains the overthrow of this regime by the people of Iran and the Iranian Resistance,” she added. But is the NCRI truly the "only viable solution"?
It's certainly the most organized opposition. And it's the only secular alternative to the theocrats in Tehran. If there is going to be a regime change, it will almost certainly be led by the NCRI.
"The issue of the day in Iran — and the war that has been waged over it — is the nuclear question,” Rajavi said. “Yet the issue of Iran in its entirety goes far beyond this regime’s nuclear program. At its core, the conflict is between the people of Iran and the Iranian Resistance on one side, and religious tyranny on the other.”
It might be best for Iranians to wait a little while. The state of the economy is so dire that many analysts are predicting a collapse.
NCRI:
Iran’s economy in 2025 is facing deep structural crises, the result of decades of mismanagement, international sanctions, systemic corruption, and widespread imbalances across various economic sectors. The rapid devaluation of the national currency, declining purchasing power, industrial stagnation, capital flight, and decreasing GDP all indicate a crisis that could lead to widespread social unrest and protests.
The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar in Iran’s free market, which was around 60,000 tomans at the beginning of Masoud Pezeshkian’s government, has now surpassed 100,000 tomans. The state-run Jahan Sanat reports, “The exchange rate of the rial to the dollar in the Persian calendar year 1403 (March 2024-March 2025) reached its worst level. The severe devaluation of the rial has left people angry and confused.” This freefall in the value of the national currency has not only fueled inflation but also plunged financial markets into crisis.
The stock market has also suffered significantly, with the main index dropping by 34,000 points, leading to a mass exodus of private capital. Instead of being invested in production, liquidity is being funneled into the currency, gold, and even offshore investments, further exacerbating economic instability.
Israel has been relentlessly attacking Iran's oil production in the last week, further weakening the nation's economy. An economic collapse would certainly bring people into the streets.
But as the regime has shown in the past, they are not above shooting people dead in the streets. During demonstrations in the aftermath of the 1979 revolution, the Revolutionary Guards mowed down 50 protesters who were demonstrating against the Islamic constitution being adopted. Another 200 were wounded. In the end, 23 people, including teenage girls, were executed. This began a three-month reign of terror that saw more people executed than in the entire 25 years of the Shah.
The reported number of executions increased to "600 by September, 1700 by October, and 2500 by December." Initially, the regime publicly displayed the bodies and took pride in declaring the execution of entire families, "including teenage daughters and 60-year-old grandmothers."[
This is why any attempt at regime change by the NCRI will fail. Unless the NCRI and the MEK have hidden stashes of guns, artillery, and trained forces, the people will be slaughtered in the streets. The possibility of police switching sides, which occurred in 1979, is remote. The regime is just too well entrenched to be levered out by a "people's revolution."
Only the army can dislodge the clerical fascist regime. The circumstances that would see that happen are unknowable, but not impossible.
