U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was to meet with his European counterparts in London on Wednesday but decided to hold off while lower-level staffers conducted "technical talks" on how to end the Ukraine War.
Rubio warned that if further progress was not made soon, Donald Trump would “move on” to other American priorities. Time is slipping away for Ukraine because the Ukrainian leadership is unable to deal with the reality of its situation.
The reality is that there are 150,000 Russian troops on the Crimean peninsula, which, until 2014, was part of Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky has made it clear that he will not trade Ukrainian territory for peace.
So, either Zlenesky's military is going to have to find a way to fight through to Crimea and win it back, or a sudden change of heart will be necessary by Russian President Vladimir Putin for Ukraine to retake possession of the peninsula.
Barring a military victory, Ukraine's only hope is for the entire world to pressure Moscow for Putin to relinquish the territory his troops have won in battle without corresponding concessions from Kyiv. (Refusing membership in NATO concedes nothing since Ukraine isn't yet a member.) Since most of the developed world has sanctioned Russia to the hilt for its invasion of Crimea, it's an open question just how much more pressure the West can bring to bear.
Ukraine is asking for territorial concessions without having won anything. That would be a first in the history of modern war.
“There’s going to have to be some territorial swaps,” Vice President J.D. Vance said. He added that both sides will have to “put down their weapons, to freeze this thing and to get on with the business of actually building a better Russia and a better Ukraine.
Major progress in the talks now appears less likely, after Zelensky batted away many of the latest American proposals on Tuesday.
Zelensky asked what concessions Russia would make if Ukraine gave up its goal of joining NATO. He also questioned the idea, recently floated by President Trump, that the U.S. could operate the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, in southern Ukraine, which has been under Russian occupation since early in the invasion.
The plant “will not work without Ukraine and Ukraine’s technical knowledge,” Zelensky said, adding that restarting the plant would be logistically challenging with its water supply and the fate of its workers uncertain.
Trump has been trying to get Zelensky to accept the reality of his situation. It's hard because of the Ukrainian president's early pronouncements that he would win back "every inch" of territory taken by Russia. This galvanized the public and bound Zelensky to an impossible political position. Even at this late date, with 100,000 dead and 400,000 wounded, Zelensky can't bring himself to alter his pledge.
White House special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to Russia later this week to continue discussions on finding a formula that could lead to a ceasefire.
“Trump’s peacemaking process is a hot potato—nobody wants to look like the one who doesn’t want peace,” said Oleksiy Kovzhun, a Ukrainian political analyst. That said, Kovzhun doesn't think the public is ready for territorial concessions. "It's impossible," he said.
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There's a split between several of the big powers in Europe over how to approach a peace deal. British and French officials support a deal where Ukraine would accept the current stalemate in return for security guarantees and economic support. France and the U.K. would prefer a deal that acknowledges control of land by Russia in a "de facto" way, such as the ceasefire that ended the Korean War.
As the front line has hardened over the past two years—with Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive failing to retake much territory and Moscow making only plodding gains since then—the Ukrainian public has slowly been warming to the idea that ending the war might require some kind of territorial concession.
A poll conducted earlier this year by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that 39% percent of Ukrainians would be willing to give up territory as part of a deal to end the conflict, up from 8% in late 2022. Still, 50% of Ukrainians remain opposed to territorial concessions.
What sort of concessions should Moscow be prepared to make? Russia could end this war quickly by giving several security guarantees to Kyiv. But since Vladimir Putin's ultimate goal is the reconquest of Ukraine, there's no realistic scenario in which Putin would do that.
Unless President Zelensky can finesse the political situation and recognize the reality of his position vis-à-vis the Russians, peace will be even more elusive than it is now.
