Negotiators for the United States and Iran will meet in Oman on Saturday to begin what the U.S. calls "direct" negotiations on Iran's nuclear program but Iran characterizes as “indirect high-level talks.”
The fact is, White House Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff will be leading the negotiations for the U.S. while Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who also served as Iran’s chief negotiator a decade ago when Tehran negotiated the Obama-era nuclear agreement, will helm the Iranian delegation. The notion that, at some point, the two negotiators won't be meeting face-to-face is absurd.
This is especially true because the stakes couldn't be higher. Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met at the White House this week, and Trump made it crystal clear that "Zero Hour" for Iran has arrived.
For thirty years, U.S. presidents have been threatening Iran over their nuclear program. For thirty years, Iran has virtually ignored those threats. Now, Iran recognizes that the U.S. means business, and the time for stalling and ignoring the concerns of Israel and the U.S. is past.
“If they don’t make a deal,” Mr. Trump said last month, “there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.”
Iran will try to stall as long as possible. Their latest gambit is to request that Washington agree to an "interim deal" that would solve absolutely nothing and, presumably, require the U.S. to lift some sanctions.
Iran thinks it's dealing with Biden or Obama. Trump is not Biden or Obama. And there will be no delays. If Iran walks away, they will get clobbered. If Iran tries their stalling tactics, the American negotiators are likely to walk out, and the bombing will begin.
The bottom line is that Trump and Netanyahu, who are of one mind but probably not coordinating an attack, have decided that Iran is just too close to going nuclear (if they haven't already), and that process needs to be halted.
Unfortunately, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, cannot make a deal that would either end his nuclear program or put most of it under international supervision. He'd either be assassinated or deposed if he did.
Many Americans fail to understand that for Mr. Khamenei, getting bombed is preferable to giving up the bomb. The supreme leader knows that conceding Iran’s atomic program would anger his core supporters, particularly among the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. The sight of a 85-year-old man—known for decades for his willingness to cripple or kill his opponents—going wobbly in the face of Trumpian threats could provoke his constituents to take to the streets. The mullahs also understand that most Iranians despise them, and an internal insurrection could be around the corner if they are perceived as weak.
U.S. intelligence believes that Israel is likely to strike Iran's nuclear infrastructure this year. The best way to do it is to use the most devastating ordinance in the U.S. arsenal: the 4,000-lb. MOAB ("Mother Of All Bombs"). So far, Israel has been denied this weapon, although they have been able to buy the smaller, 2,000-lb. bunker busters they used to kill Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
The 2,000 lb bombs cannot penetrate the most hardened Iranian nuclear sites like the Natanz atomic facility built into the Zagros Mountains. If Trump relents and allows Israel to purchase the MOABs, it may give Iran the proper incentive to strike an agreement.
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I don't think Khamenei can afford to make a deal with Israel and the U.S. In 2015, Obama was so eager to make a deal that he actually paid Tehran $15 billion to come to terms. That's not going to happen this time. And negotiating away Iran's "regime guarantor" will not sit well with the Revolutionary Guards or the most fanatical elements of the Iranian regime.
Khamenei can't afford to move forward, and he can't retreat. He and Iran are stuck and can do little but hunker down and wait for the bombs to start falling.
