On Monday, I covered the closer-than-expected race in Florida's 6th District to replace former Rep. Mike Waltz, currently serving as Donald Trump's national security advisor.
Trump endorsed State Senator Randy Fine, which was thought to be enough in a district that gave the president a 30-point margin of victory.
But the outrage and fear ginned up by the national media over Trump's policies, plus the rage of Democrats at being on the outs, has energized the opposition, bringing the race within the margin of error.
Fine has taken a lackadaisical approach to the race, angering local Republicans and being outraised by math teacher Josh Weil 10-1.
One poll, conducted by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, has Weil up by three points, with 10% undecided.
There is no margin of error for Trump and the Republicans in the House, however. With a slim 218-213 majority with four vacancies, Trump decided not to take any chances and withdrew the nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik to be ambassador to the United Nations.
Trump will hold a tele-town hall for Fine and Jimmy Patronis, who is looking to win the seat vacated by Rep. Matt Gaetz's resignation. The volatility of the current political climate makes any election in any district a crapshoot.
“If we’re far underperforming in seats Trump won by 30 then there’s obvious concern about having to chance special elections in seats Trump won by a lot less,” a GOP campaign consultant told Politico. “The juice is not worth the squeeze sweating them out.”
But there are complications with Stefanik staying in the House. The leadership elections have been held, and she's been replaced as majority whip, the third-ranking spot in the House. Trump says she will "rejoin the House leadership team."
“The people love Elise and, with her, we have nothing to worry about come Election Day. There are others that can do a good job at the United Nations. Therefore, Elise will stay in Congress, rejoin the House Leadership Team, and continue to fight for our amazing American People,” the president wrote on his Truth Social platform.
Rep. Lisa McClain took her spot in the leadership, and word is that she's of no mind to resign or withdraw.
“I think there’s some political realities that they’re grappling with in the House right now and every vote counts,” said Majority Leader Senator John Thune.
Zac McCrary, a Democratic pollster who was working for Blake Gendebien in the now-canceled special election in Stefanik’s seat, said “this is a Jamaal Bowman-style five alarm fire bell.”
“Again, you don’t have to take anyone’s word for it, just see how Republicans are acting,” McCrary said. “They were very blasé about opening up the seat and now on a full retreat.”
Democrats have been on a streak of success down ballot, narrowly winning a special election on Tuesday for state Senate in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, in a district that Trump had won by 15 points in 2024. It included the more conservative parts of a county that only one Democratic presidential candidate, Lyndon Johnson in 1964, had won since the Civil War.
Special elections are virtually meaningless given the 15-20% turnout of eligible voters. What makes them significant is how the parties will spin the outcome. Whatever the outcome of the April special election in Florida 6, the Democrats have already won a small propaganda victory, even if Fine wins.
Trump didn't want that minor win to become any more significant by taking a chance and losing Stefanik's New York seat.
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