Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has had several close calls in his 11 years in power, including a comic-opera coup attempt in 2016 by disgruntled military officers.
But his arrest of a very popular opposition figure, the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, has been his most outrageous action yet to stay in power.
In the past, Erdogan arrested hundreds of journalists, lawyers, and others who threatened his hold on power. However, this time, he may have gone too far. Imamoglu was certain to be nominated for president by the Republican People's Party (CHP), the main rival to Erdogan's Justice and Development Party. The Istanbul mayor leads Erdogan in several polls.
Turkey's next presidential election isn't until 2028, but it was widely expected that parliament was going to call for an early vote. With raging inflation, unemployment rising, and the lira falling in value, Erdogan was in deep political trouble.
“Polls presented to Erdogan were likely showing that, even with his incumbency advantages and complete control of institutions & media, Imamoglu was — still — defeating him — by wide margins — in a presidential vote,” Soner Cagaptay, a Turkish historian and senior fellow at the Washington Institute, wrote on X. “Which is why Erdogan has opted for the nuclear option [against] Imamoglu.”
Erdogan has made himself the "indispensable man" among Western European allies and the United States in recent years, occupying a unique position that straddles the Middle East, Russia, and Ukraine.
“One plausible explanation for why they’re doing this now so far out from the elections is that the Turkish government feels secure geopolitically,” George Dyson, a senior analyst and Turkey specialist at Control Risks, said. “The U.S. is signaling it won’t mind these kinds of actions and the EU needs Turkey on Ukraine and on Syria, and so the Turkish government takes advantage of the moment when they expect minimal international backlash.”
The moment may be optimal for Turkey internationally, but domestically, the move against Imamoglu is tanking the economy.
“Turkey has already been in decline, but this is a political freefall,” Arda Tunca, an independent economist, told CNBC. “Today is history and a new dimension in Turkey’s breakaway from democracy.”
Inflation in Turkey remains high – most recently hitting 39.05% in February – and is a key sticking point that the CHP planned to run on in its campaign against Erdogan. Continued investor selling of the lira could trigger deeper inflation, forcing the Turkish central bank to raise interest rates, which are currently at an eye-watering 42.5%.
“The development will knock investor confidence and the lira, and this will drive inflation back up,” George Dyson, a senior analyst and Turkey specialist at Control Risks, told CNBC. Still, Dyson and other analysts don’t foresee the central bank abandoning economic orthodoxy and cutting rates. Rather, they hold there may be new rate hikes, if the lira’s weakness worsens, as the bank’s laser focus has been on combating inflation.
According to Reuters, 37 people were accused of "provocative" social media posts and detained. Imamoglu was arrested on charges including terrorism and organized crime. "Prosecutors also issued warrants for 100 other people, including journalists, business people, and members of Imamoglu’s CHP," reports CNBC.
Despite bans on protests, tens of thousands of people in several cities took to the streets.
"The people will give their response again," said another Imamoglu supporter, Yusuf Demirci, 34, in Istanbul. "As you saw yesterday, everyone is on the streets. Everyone is in the squares. The squares and the ballot box will be the result of this. I say the righteous one will win."
That's not guaranteed with Erdogan having a tight grip on the nation.
