My PJ Media colleague Matt Margolis gave us the exciting news on Saturday that the launch of Elon Musk's Starship to Mars will happen at the end of 2026. It will carry a humanoid robot named Optimus.
Matt writes, "If everything goes as planned, humans could reach Mars as early as 2029—though he [Musk] acknowledged that 2031 is a more realistic target."
Elon Musk has that exceptional American quality of seeing his reach exceed his grasp. We would never have gotten to the moon and returned safely without that quality. We would never have accomplished any of the other spectacular technological and human achievements without that singular, exceptional mindset, that American "can-do" attitude.
Like many other explorers and adventurers, the first humans who attempt a mission to Mars are not likely to survive if it's undertaken in Musk's time frame.
Mars "wants to absolutely obliterate us," says Mary-Jane Rubenstein, a professor of religion and science in society at Wesleyan University. The humanist professor is not far off the mark. Outer space is the most hostile environment known to man—except for Mars, which is 148 million miles away. That makes a mission to Mars beyond any hope of rescue if things go south.
And man, there are a lot of things that could, and probably will, go south.
The young engineers and scientists toiling away to get Starship ready for a late 2026 liftoff are almost certainly aware of the daunting problems facing the first manned mission to Mars. They also share their boss's vision of a community on Mars.
But do they know what the cost of this venture is going to be, not just dollars, but in human lives? Elon does.
Occupy Mars! https://t.co/jHWmXPIPSH
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 10, 2024
Probably lots of people will die, and terrible and great things will happen along the way, just as they happened in the formation of the United States.It'll be one of those things that is incredibly inspiring, and we must have inspiring things in the world.Life cannot just be about solving this problem or that problem.
That's Musk speaking before the Mars Society in 2012. At least he has no illusions going in.
There are several apparently insurmountable problems to reaching Mars alive and staying alive on the surface, all of which must be addressed before the risk/reward equation comes close to being balanced.
First and foremost is the radiation problem. Sheidling will be critical to preventing astronauts from sickening and dying. How much shielding is a question that Optimus may be able to answer. However, with no atmosphere to shield the astronauts from solar storms and cosmic rays, it will be difficult to gauge how much radiation exposure will be acceptable.
The question of consumables is also critical. Air, water, and food will be necessary for the entire duration of their stay on Mars. Fortunately, oxygen and water can be manufactured, and urine can be recycled. But all food consumed by the astronauts will have to be brought with them. A resupply mission might be possible eventually, but Musk has ruled that out for the present.
The most significant technological challenge will be landing on Mars. Until the last 15 years, landing on Mars was very much a hit-or-miss operation. Just prior to the turn of the 21st century, two of NASA's most expensive Mars landers —the Polar Lander and Climate Orbiter— failed.
Lately, the U.S. has had several spectacular successes, landing several spacecraft on the surface and a fantastic orbiter, the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), which has been doing amazing science since 2006.
It's still an enormously complex and, with humans aboard, dangerous operation.
One human problem is that in the 18 months to two years, the astronauts will be separated from other humans. There will almost certainly be interpersonal problems, isolation, bouts of depression, and possible other unforeseen psychological effects.
There are just too many unknowns going to Mars, landing, and staying a while for anyone to have any confidence in the long-term survival of the crew. Getting there alive would be a major achievement.
Neil Armstrong reportedly gave the Apollo 11 mission that landed on the Moon a 50-50 chance of success. I would halve those odds for any mission to Mars that launched before 2040.
