House Republican factions were able to unite long enough to pass a budget bill that begins the long process of reconciliation and the realization of Trump's massive agenda.
As you might expect, the bill has something for everyone in the Republican Party. There's a $4.5 trillion extension of tax cuts and some new tax cuts Trump has suggested. For the "fiscal conservatives," there's $1.5 trillion in spending cuts over the next decade. That amount of spending cuts will probably come up a little bit short of balancing the budget. So the House bill includes raising the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. That increase is only expected to last about 2 years.
So, yeah, there is great irony in calling any Republican a "fiscal conservative."
The cut in spending is about $1 trillion less than the conservative faction wants to spend, while the tax cuts are about $1 trillion less, which would allow for extending all tax cuts that are expiring at the end of the year. The extra trillion dollars would also allow for Trump's tax-free tips, overtime pay, and Social Security plans.
I'm sure if we keep digging, we'll find a unicorn in there somewhere.
“This budget resolution provides the fiscal framework for what will be one of the most consequential pieces of legislation in modern history,” House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said, “and the principal legislative vehicle for delivering on President Trump’s ‘America first’ agenda.”
The targets are going to test House Republicans’ ability to unify their fractious, narrow majority, now at 218-215. Rep. Ralph Norman (R., S.C.), a Budget Committee member, said Wednesday that progress had been made in setting the floor for spending, but he was undecided on whether he would support the plan. And Rep. Eric Burlison (R., Mo.) said the plan was “pathetic” and that the spending cut floor needed to be higher.
Even if House Republicans adopt a budget, subsequent legislation that stays within those thresholds could prove challenging to write and pass.
“This is Trump’s agenda. Would you want to be the person that stands between the president and his agenda?” said Rep. Lisa McClain (R., Mich.), the House GOP conference chair.
Presidential chronicler Theodore H. White referred to this initial legislative action as a new president's "primal thrust." Trump will probably never be more popular and able to act with his party behind him.
White was referring to the presidency of Ronald Reagan and comparing it to Jimmy Carter's presidency. Carter's first few months were aimless, scattershot efforts to pass Democratic priorities. He was never able to recover momentum. Reagan's tax and spending cuts totally immersed the executive branch and Congress into one colossal effort to restart the American economy and propel it out of "stagflation."
On the spending side, the largest cuts would be at least $880 billion from the Energy and Commerce Committee, which has jurisdiction over Medicaid, the health insurance program for low-income people. Republicans have talked about a variety of Medicaid changes, including work requirements for able-bodied beneficiaries and revisions to funding formulas for the federal-state program. Other possible spending-cut targets include student-loan programs and food assistance for low-income people.
Republicans are planning to assume that real economic growth—caused by their plans and Trump’s actions on deregulation and fossil-fuel production—can be higher than the 1.8% forecast by the Congressional Budget Office. That would throw off enough tax revenue so Republicans can claim that their plan wouldn’t add to budget deficits.
But such growth is difficult to achieve and sustain, economists say, especially because Trump’s immigration and tariff policies tend to slow growth.
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There's a long way to go to get this bill passed. The Senate has its own ideas: a two-bill approach that would see spending for the border and the military pass first and tax cuts approved later. That's not going to fly in the House.
There is already grumbling from Republicans who want larger cuts in spending and more room for Trump's tax cut ideas. A lot is riding on this bill for Republicans, for Trump, for America. That may be enough to unite the factions long enough to get the job done.
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