Syria is in chaos. There are half a dozen rebel groups looking for power, influence, and recognition including the former al-Qaeda -affiliated Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
A group of "senior U.S. diplomats" are in Damascus now, talking with HTS leaders including Ahmed al-Shara, known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani in his al-Qaeda days. The (former) terrorists are looking to have sanctions lifted, among other goodies.
The State Department released a statement saying the diplomats “will be engaging directly with the Syrian people, including members of civil society, activists, members of different communities and other Syrian voices about their vision for the future of their country and how the United States can help support them."
The "civil society, activists, and members of different communities" have zero power. But the diplomats represent the Biden administration, so they have to pretend that these unarmed idealists are going to have a say in how Syria is governed.
The diplomats are going to discuss "transition principles." And yes, they're as idiotic as you might expect given that the HTS has indicated it wants a theocratic state but not a caliphate like ISIS. Nevertheless, the U.S., Arab, and Turkish diplomats all agreed on these "transition principles."
A transitional government must be inclusive and non-sectarian. It should uphold and protect the rights of all Syrians, including minorities and women. It should preserve critical state institutions and deliver essential services. It should ensure that Syria does not pose a threat to its neighbors by serving as a base for terrorism, or ally with groups like ISIS. It needs to also ensure that any chemical weapons are secured and destroyed.
"Minorities," like the Alawites are already terrified. The small Muslim sect ruled Syria's dominant Sunnis while Assad and his father (both Alawites) terrorized the population. With Assad gone, reprisals against the Alawites are an absolute certainty given the brutal code that most Middle Easterners live by.
As far as protecting the rights of women, HTS doesn't think about such matters.
They will probably take the same tack as the Taliban in Afghanistan who promised the U.S. and the West that they would respect women's newly-won freedoms in education and the workplace.
That lasted only until the U.S. skedaddled from Afghanistan. Now, of course, women are being crushed under the heel of the religious fanatics to a far greater degree than they were before the U.S. invaded.
The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Ahmed al-Shara, formerly known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has said in interviews that his group plans to have an inclusive process and does not seek to harm non-Muslims in Syria. The group is conservative and follows tenets of political Islam, but it broke from Al Qaeda and the Islamic State years ago, and has even fought them. The rebel group has administered much of Syria’s opposition-held Idlib Province since 2017.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in its counterterrorism guide, "HTS primarily focuses on attacks against the Assad regime and seeks to replace it with a government guided by a fundamentalist interpretation of Islamic law." How do you get a pluralistic, diverse, tolerant government out of that?
HTS is making all the right noises. There will be a transition period until March 1, 2025. After that a "caretaker" government involving Syrians of all backgrounds will be established and a constitution written.
A nation with no experience whatsoever with any kind of pluralistic government will sit down together, sing "Kumbaya," and Syria will be reborn as a peaceful, democratic state.
Forgive my skepticism, but it sounds like the diplomats in Damascus are stuck in La-La Land. Israel will sit on Syria to make sure it will never be a threat again. Beyond that, Syria will turn into a typical unfree, cruel, brutal dictatorship.
It's all they know. They wouldn't know how to change even if they could.
