Donald Trump isn't president yet, but he may as well be. The rest of the world thinks that he's president. That has already started a shuffling of the deck and is forcing reassessments from friends and foes alike.
Early this month, Trump took to Truth Social to issue a warning to the terrorist group Hamas — what's left of it, anyway.
“If the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity. Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW!”
The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday that for the first time since October 7, 2023, Hamas has agreed to allow Israeli troops to remain in Gaza after a ceasefire is agreed to. More importantly, the terrorists handed over a list of living hostages that would be released when the fighting ended.
Progress toward a deal comes after an Egyptian delegation visited Israel in late November, and after President-elect Donald Trump said on Truth Social earlier this month that there would be “hell to pay” in the Middle East if the hostages aren’t released before he assumes office in January.
As part of the latest proposal, Israel and Hamas are considering a 60-day cease-fire period that would see the release of up to 30 hostages being held in Gaza, including U.S. citizens, according to the mediators. In exchange, Israel would set free Palestinian prisoners and allow greater humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza, they said.
Hamas is giving way in Gaza, Syria's Bashar Assad is just another exiled tyrant, Europe's elites are faltering as governments in Berlin and Paris fall, and conservatives are on the march.
It's not all Trump's doing, of course. But Trump's election, quite unexpectedly, has changed the power dynamic in some places that allows change to happen. The uncertainty about what Trump might do has caused massive reassessments of the strategic situation for U.S. allies and enemies.
It's rare that these currents and eddies of history that are running under the surface are so obvious so quickly. In the Middle East, Trump's direct threat against Hamas was the icing on the cake that pushed Hamas over the edge and forced them to deal with a new reality.
“For months, we believe Hamas was waiting for lots of other actors and forces to come to their rescue,” said Biden's national security advisor Jake Sullivan. After the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, “we had a different character to the negotiation, and we believe that it puts us in a position to be able to close this negotiation," Sullivan added.
The last round of cease-fire talks had stalled over Netanyahu’s demands for Israeli forces to remain in the strategic corridors in Gaza. Other sticking points included whether any halt to fighting would be temporary or become permanent, how to secure the border between Gaza and Egypt and Israel’s ability to screen Palestinians returning to northern Gaza. Other issues were which Palestinian prisoners would be approved for release and the number of living hostages to be freed.
Netanyahu, in response to a reporter’s question about whether he was willing to give up Israel’s presence along the Philadelphi corridor to facilitate a deal, said the corridor should continue to be under Israel’s control.
This is the eleventh presidential administration in my adult life, and I cannot recall any president-elect having such an extraordinary effect on events, both directly and indirectly, before he enters office. Part of that is the incredible time we live in. Trump is going to be riding the wave of this change, unable to control it, but hopefully able to influence events to America's advantage.
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