Why Does Iran Want a War With the United States?

No part of the world has been more impacted by Donald Trump's election than the Middle East. For some, such as Saudi Arabia, Israel, the UAE, and other Gulf states, Trump's election brings hope for peace and better relations. For Iran, Syria, Iraq, and most especially Yemen, the news of Trump's coming ascension went over like a lead balloon. 

For Iran, it's a matter of survival. Trump must die or the regime will die. It's not just that Trump had Qasem Soleimani, chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, assassinated in a high-profile, very public way. Soleimani led the organization responsible for terrorism across the Middle East.

Iran is using Soleimani's killing as an excuse to go after Trump. The truth is, Iran knows the difference between a Biden presidency and a Trump presidency, and without firing a shot, Trump can bring the Iranian regime to its knees.

For the last four years, Iran has been able to sell $50 billion in oil, mostly to China, despite strict sanctions imposed on their oil industry by Trump. Biden's lax enforcement of the oil embargo and other sanctions has enriched the mullahs and Revolutionary Guard commanders. Those are the individuals who maintain security in Iran and prevent uprisings.

There's already a low-intensity rebellion in Sistan and Baluchistan Province that flares up from time to time. And the ever-present threat of mass demonstrations on the streets of major cities has the entire leadership on edge. Anything can set off the next round of protests and crackdowns.

But there are other signs that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is starting to lose his grip on power. At 85, Khamenei is said to be in poor health, and the jostling is already underway to succeed him. That's a distraction the regime cannot afford at this time.

If the Iranians can't kill Trump, they will have to start a war against the U.S. Madness? Sure. Iran would surely be clobbered in any conflict with the U.S. But they wouldn't be destroyed. Regime change would require the sizable presence of U.S. ground forces to bring about the desired result.

Then what? Iraq Part II? Nation building in an even more hostile atmosphere? Destroying the regime's ability to make war would be a goal within reach for the U.S. Any other goal is eventually self-defeating.

War would be good for the mullahs and bad for the U.S. It would unite the Iranian people behind the regime and give the Supreme Leader and other Iranian clerics credibility after they've been saying for decades that the U.S. is a threat — "The Great Satan" — and spinning the war as the fault of the U.S. would be a simple matter. British Col. Richard Kemp explains:

On its own, Iran’s intent to assassinate Donald Trump is a casus belli, demanding the decapitation of the regime. But Tehran’s aggression goes beyond even that. In the last year alone, Iran’s proxies have carried out almost 200 attacks against US forces in Iraq, Syria and Jordan. On 7 October last year, more than 40 Americans living in Israel were murdered by Iranian proxies and 12 kidnapped, some of whom are still held hostage. Trump has warned Hamas and their Iranian sponsors: “We want our hostages back, and they better be back before I assume office, or you will be paying a very big price”.

This suggests that, when Trump re-enters the White House, Washington’s protection of Iran will come to a dramatic end. It is vital for the Middle East and the West that it does. Thanks to Obama’s nuclear deal and Biden’s appeasement, Tehran is now on the cusp of becoming a nuclear armed state. It is believed to have sufficient highly enriched uranium to manufacture at least ten nuclear weapons and the ability to deliver them by ballistic missiles, and may be about to gain the capability for weaponisation.

The assassination plots against Trump are not rogue operations by disgruntled elements of the regime. This last plot was engineered by the Revolutionary Guards, a highly disciplined force that takes its orders directly from the Supreme Leader.

Khamenei wants Trump dead, despite knowing the consequences would be massive destruction. I can't think of a clearer sign that Iran wants conflict with the U.S., seeing it as its only chance to survive in the near term.