Old habits are hard to break. That includes the way we cast ballots.
Democrats have embraced the concept of early voting and mail-in voting. Because of that, they have moved out to a large lead in the presidential race as well as down-ballot races, as they did in 2020.
Early voting was adopted in most states because of the pandemic, even though there was little danger for most voters. Democrats rightly saw early voting as a way to get more of their voters to the polls. Republicans, led by Donald Trump, cast doubts on the legitimacy of early voting, which led to most Republicans avoiding early in-person voting and mail-in voting. There's no evidence that the reluctance to vote early made a big difference in the race.
Studies done after the 2020 election show that the early voters are "high-propensity voters" who would have voted anyway. Nevertheless, Republicans are all-in as far as pushing early voting in 2024. How that push will play out in terms of total GOP voters casting ballots is unknown.
Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who compiles voting numbers for the Election Lab, says the real test of whether Trump's about-face on early voting has had an impact is whether the strong start to the early voter season for Republicans will continue to election day. If it does, that might indicate new voters have made their mark on the race which would mean a slight edge for Trump, who tends to draw more new voters than the Democrats.
The message is being spread by both Trump and J.D. Vance.
“I don’t like election season,” Vance said in Pennsylvania. “I like Election Day, but as Donald Trump has said, it is what it is. And if the Democrats are going to use every method of voting possible, then the Republicans, we’ve got to do it, too.”
In Nevada, where preliminary data shows that about 250,000 voters have cast ballots so far, Democrats represent 43 percent of returned mail ballots while Republicans account for about 30 percent.
Republican in-person turnout, meanwhile, is ahead of where it was four years ago. In Nevada, the GOP share of in-person totals was 52 percent as of late Monday, whereas the Democratic share was 28 percent.
Nevada is an interesting case. Clark County contains about 70% of the state's registered voters and is heavily Democratic. Most of rural Nevada is heavily Republican. In order for a Democrat to win the state, they must get 65% of the vote in Clark County to offset the GOP advantage elsewhere.
It's a dynamic that has played out to the GOP's disadvantage since 2008.
Mail-in and early-voting totals the secretary of state’s released show 263,410 ballots cast as of Monday, representing 13.1% of statewide turnout. The 101,231 GOP ballots cast so far lead the 95,392 Democratic ballots by 5,839, or 2.2%. A further 66,787 ballots were cast by unaffiliated voters or those registered with other political parties.
What those early ballots — in-person and postal — contain won’t be known until the polls close Nov. 5. But pundit Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of The Nevada Independent, said Monday night the GOP hasn’t seen a statewide ballot lead here since 2008, and it “could signal serious danger” for the Harris campaign.
RealClearPolitics’ Nevada polling average gives Trump a 0.7-point lead over Harris, down one-tenth of a point from the weekend.
“We’re seeing a strong turnout from Republicans who understand the importance of banking their vote ahead of time,” Nevada GOP Chairman and Trump senior adviser Michael J. McDonald told The Post.
“This enthusiasm reflects the confidence voters have in President Trump’s leadership and his ability to solve Nevadans’ top concerns: rising costs, stagnant wages, and affordable housing.”
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Harris and the Democrats are very worried about Nevada. Barack Obama has made two trips to the state already and is likely to make at least one more.
State Republicans smell blood. “There is incredible energy on the ground,” said Raegan Lehman, campaign communications director. “Nevadans have made it clear they are ready for a change and the momentum is on our side.”
That enthusiasm is translating into early votes.
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