Michigan is as close as it gets in the presidential race. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are tied at 47.3%.
But Trump may have an ace in the hole. There are 200,000 Arab voters in Michigan. Biden got more than 65% of that vote in 2020.
But 2024 is going to be a lot different. A new poll by Arab News/YouGov, found Trump leading the Democratic nominee 45% to 43% with 4% supporting Green Party candidate Jill Stein and 6% undecided.
That's a lot of voters that Harris won't have.
In addition, the enthusiasm level of Arab Americans is way down compared to 2020.
Four years ago, Arab American and Muslim voters helped deliver President Joe Biden to the White House by rallying behind him in Michigan, one of seven critical swing states with the power to sway the outcome of the election.
This year, many of those same voters are leaving the Democratic Party behind because they feel betrayed, forgotten and angry over the Biden administration's handling of the Middle East conflict and the U.S.'s ongoing allyship with Israel.
With this year's race for Michigan likely to be decided by a thin margin, voter sentiment there could have an outsize impact on determining who becomes the next U.S. president.
Biden's handling of the Arab-American problem may go down in history as the absolute most incompetent display of political acumen in American history. Yes, there was a war. But there are ways to finesse the problem and keep the political damage to a minimum.
Listen to these voters and tell me that Biden couldn't have handled it better.
"I cannot emphasize my [disgust] with the current administration and their lack of leadership, their lack of empathy toward the Palestinian people, their lack of empathy toward the Lebanese people," said Abdulhakem Alsadah, 62, chair of the Yemeni American Democratic Caucus, who declined to specify how he'll be voting.
No voter should ever get that angry at a candidate.
"I'm so enraged, it's no longer hurt. It's rage. I want the Democrats to lose by any means necessary — and that means voting for Trump," said Dearborn-based political activist Samraa Luqman, who was once "so far left" that she wrote in Bernie Sanders' name in 2020.
Certainly, the loss of support among Arabs in Michigan and several other swing states spelled Biden's doom.
"Biden would not have won Michigan without Muslim votes. For sure. He would have not won without the Muslim community being galvanized, organized and overwhelmingly voting for him," said Dawud Walid, an executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations.
Polls suggest the U.S. presidential candidates are essentially tied with a little more than two weeks to go before the vote. There were roughly 206,000 registered Muslim voters in Michigan in 2020, according to Emgage. A little more than 71 percent of those people cast ballots.
Speaking from his office last Friday, Dearborn resident and long-time Democrat Walid Fidama. Fidama said he thinks Harris will ultimately win the White House in November because her strength on other election issues like reproductive rights will draw out enough favorable voters to make up for the loss of support from Arab Americans.
But he warned that the Democrats should be concerned about so many once-faithful voters leaving the party in droves.
"I don't think they are doing the right thing for us."
Harris and the Democrats aren't panicking. But their efforts to convince NeverTrump Republicans to vote for Harris is an act of desperation.
Note: Desperate candidates rarely come out on top.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member