For nearly three years, the U.S. has been tweaking the Russians by sending ever-more advanced weaponry to Ukraine. Washington has dared Russia to respond after they escalated the conflict by sending highly advanced rocket launchers, missiles, tanks, and planes to Kyivv. Moscow continually warned America against sending the weaponry. These warnings were ignored by the U.S. and chalked up to Russian President Vladimir Putin's "bluff."
Maybe Putin was "bluffing." But two can play the escalation game, as Putin is proving by deploying at least 1200 North Korean special forces soldiers to Ukraine.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on Saturdayh that the deployment represented "a huge" escalation risk.
The deployment would "push the conflict into a new stage, an additional escalatory stage," France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot added at a joint press conference with Sybiha in Kyiv.
Russia is running out of cannon fodder. Since they're on the attack, they're losing 2 soldiers to death or wounds for every Ukrainian soldier lost. The need for additional bodies is great.
The Russian deployment of North Korean troops is understandable from their point of view. But the U.S. and Ukraine's allies apparently think they're the only ones who can play the escalation game.
“These troop movements, if true, are alarming and are an extreme escalation of the conflict in Ukraine,” House Intelligence Committee chairman Mike Turner wrote. “They require an immediate response from the United States and our NATO allies to avoid a widening conflict.”
"Extreme escalation" is a hysterical response. North Korea has a million-man army and sending 1,200 North Korean troops to Ukraine doesn't alter the strategic calculus in the slightest.
It's not like North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is sending the most advanced fighter jets or battle tanks to Russia as the U.S. did in Ukraine. This is just one congressman engaging in useless gum-flapping.
France's Barrot said such a move would signal that Moscow was struggling in the war. But "it would be serious and push the conflict into a new stage, an additional escalatory stage," Barrot said.
Barrot also pledged his support for Ukraine’s plan for ending the war with Russia, saying he will work with Ukrainian officials to secure international backing for the proposal. Kyiv’s “victory plan,” which Zelenskyy unveiled earlier this week, hopes to compel Moscow to end its invasion of Ukraine through negotiations.
The proposal is being considered by Ukraine’s Western partners, whose help is vital for Kyiv. A key element would be a formal invitation into NATO, which Western allies have been reluctant to consider until after the war ends.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s "victory plan" is delusional. I summarized the plan last month.
"The outline of the "plan" is more of the same that came before: more guns, more ammo, more planes, more tech, plus permission to bring the world to the doorstep of World War III." Most provocatively, President Zelenskyy wants to join NATO so we call go to war nice and legal-like.
Zelenskyy fears a Trump victory in the presidential race. Trump says he can end the war in 24 hours. That's not going to happen, but what Zelenskyy fears is that Trump will force a premature settlement that will leave a large portion of Ukraine under Moscow's control.
Zelenskyy has promised the Ukrainian people that all territory currently under Russian control will be won back. This includes Crimea, an impossible task without the U.S. going to war with Kyivv. Zelenskyy knows this which is why he's pushing this delusional plan.
“They seem to be just doing very little now and waiting for the election,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland. “So much of the strategy will live or die in Washington.”
Zelenskyy laid out the five-point plan as Ukraine’s troops struggle to hold back Russian slow but steady advances in eastern Ukraine. The plan includes three “secret annexes” that were presented only to some leaders. It also addresses partners’ concerns about Ukraine’s strategy after the failed summer 2023 counteroffensive.
Zelenskyy described the main goal as “to strengthen us and force Russia to come to the negotiating table with all partners.”
The plan won’t immediately alter the battlefield situation, but it will help Ukraine wear down Russia and give more means to keep going in the attrition war.
Like the British and French who were too exhausted to continue fighting World War I in 1917, Ukraine is holding on and waiting for the Americans. That doesn't sound like a "victory plan" to me. But realistically, it's all they have.
