The initial flush of excitement and optimism is long gone from the Harris campaign. With a month left before they start counting votes, Harris has fallen back, and the race, especially in the vital "Blue Wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, has tightened considerably.
Those states all have pretty much the same demographics. Large rural populations, strong union presence, manufacturing centers, and a large population of white working-class voters who are attracted to Donald Trump's message of industrial revival.
Together, they represent 44 electoral votes. Harris desperately needs all three states to offset Trump's advantage in the electoral college nationally. And Democrats concede that she cannot win all three of those states without attracting an equal number of white working-class voters to her side as Trump.
Harris is also falling short in gaining the support of union members. In 2020, Biden gained the endorsement of most major unions but in 2024, the Teamsters and the firefighters' union have refused to endorse either candidate. This is reflective of union leadership's acknowledgment that their members are split on their choice for president.
Democrats themselves are split on how to approach Harris's working-class voter problem. Leftists like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) think that a class warfare, "populist" message is what's needed.
“We have got to understand that the billionaire class today not only has enormous political power, and that includes both political parties,” Sanders said during a speech in Grand Rapids, Mich., last week. “So one of the things that we have got to do is create a political movement in this country, led by the trade unions, which tells the billionaire class that we are tired of their greed.”
An internal poll done by Democrat Tammy Baldwin’s Senate campaign last week showed Harris down by 3 percentage points in Wisconsin, while Baldwin was up by two points, according to a person familiar with the poll. The person said much of the narrowing is due to Republicans’ strength with noncollege-educated men. Public polling has shown Harris with a slight lead in the state.
Corey Lewandowski, a senior Trump campaign aide, said people around the country see Harris as “the most radical, dangerous nominee of a major party in the history of our country. The people of Michigan know it. The people who work in the auto industry know it.”
Former Pennsylvania Rep. Conor Lamb believes Harris's "radical" label is making her pitch to moderate and independent voters more complicated.
“True persuasion of the last group we need, people who may vote for Republicans elsewhere on their ballot, I think is going to require more unfiltered messaging by the vice president. Town halls, interviews, etc.,” Lamb said. “The message is solid, but it’s clear to me there are still some skeptics we have to work harder to pull into our camp.”
Note that in Pennsylvania and Michigan, Democrats are the ones talking about having to work harder to gain support. Republicans know the issues are on their side.
Harris seemed to be responding to concerns during a swing through Michigan Friday. During an event in Flint, Mich., attended by Whitmer and basketball icon Magic Johnson, a Michigan native, she pushed back against advertising by the Trump campaign that claims she wants to “end all gas powered cars.” Before the Flint crowd, Harris said: “Contrary to what my opponent is suggesting, I will never tell you what kind of car you have to drive.”
Whitmer, in her remarks at the Flint event, opened with “an issue that is top of mind for Michiganders everywhere in every election: Jobs, jobs and jobs,” she said as the crowd joined her in shouting, “jobs.”
Joining Harris in Michigan was UAW chief Shawn Fain. He wants Harris to brag about the Biden administration accomplishments more.
“The Biden-Harris administration needs to be more vocal about what they’ve done,” he said, pointing to plants in Michigan receiving funding.
If only the people knew all the good stuff we're doing for them, it would be a landslide.
People don't vote for someone because of something the media says is good for them. Personal experience matters more than promises. And blue-collar voters in "Blue Wall" states are having a hard time forgetting what Biden and Harris have done over the last four years.
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