If you ask the average man or woman on the street if crime is rising or falling in America, the solid majority response would be rising.
Rasmussen Reports found the number of Americans who believe violent crime is rising very constant at 60%. Gallup found 92% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats believe that crime is rising.
Roughly four times as many people think violent crime is rising rather than getting better. But the actual figures for violent crime are falling in almost every major city. Why the disconnect? Why are people convinced crime is on the rise?
First of all, reported violent crimes are down but property crimes have skyrocketed. Secondly, only about half of police departments report crimes to the FBI database. That database reveals the real problem; plummeting arrest rates for all crimes.
The arrest rate for murder fell by 37 percent, rape by 58 percent, robbery by 50 percent, and aggravated assault by 54 percent.
The collapse in the arrest rate for property crime is even more dramatic. The average arrest rate for reported property crime fell to 4.5 percent% from an average of 13 percent in the 25 years from 1996 to 2021 — a 64 percent drop.
The lowest arrest rate in the preceding 24 years between 1996 and 2019 was 12 percent. The arrest rate in 2022 was still 61 percent lower than the previous low rate.
The drop in arrests for larceny-theft has been an astonishing 75%. The whole structure of law enforcement is broken in the United States. It's not the fault of the cops. This is a political/social problem that starts in city hall and can be traced all the way to the courthouse.
Not only have arrests for crimes dropped, but perhaps as a corollary, the number of reported crimes has dropped through the floor. People don't see the point of going to the police to report a crime.
Thus, the effective drop in the arrest rate for crime is even greater than these already stark numbers show. Since property crimes are reported less often than violent crimes, the effective arrest rate for all property crimes or all larceny thefts is extremely low.
The number of reported crimes has fallen for other reasons. In the past few years, as the number of police has fallen because of cuts in budgets and a slew of retirements, police departments nationwide — from Charlottesville and Henrico County, Virginia, to Chicago, to Olympia, Washington — stopped responding to non-emergency 911 calls. Instead of police coming out, people can still go to the police station.
In Oakland, the city's Crime Stoppers fund to reward citizens for reporting crimes has run out of money, The Oakland police have been unable to access their bank account to pay tipsters.
One man gave police information that led to the arrest and conviction of a homicide suspect. He's been waiting a year for the $10,000 reward he was promised.
The city hasn't paid a tipster since 2021 and yet, they've offered rewards in seven cases. What's worse, is the cops have known about the banking problems and keep offering rewards anyway.
“It was just kind of disappointing, how police and public servants treat their citizens,” the tipster said.
No mystery when people aren't bothering to report crimes in Oakland.
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