Ukraine's "minor incursion" into the Kursk region of Russia has become something a lot more dangerous to Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared a state of emergency in the Kursk Oblast as the Ukrainians hit an airport and ammo depot, destroying several hundred drones that had been bedeviling Kyivv's air defenses.
“It’s not a raid, this is something different,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former defense minister and chairman of Ukraine’s Center for Defense Strategies, an independent think tank.
“It’s not a question about staying there forever or for a long time, it’s an issue of trying to stretch out their forces,” he added. “I doubt that Ukraine’s leadership has these plans to occupy Russian territory and to hold it indefinitely.”
The boost to Ukrainian civilian and military morale that this incursion has given is immeasurable. If nothing else, the hope generated by the attack over the Russian border has given hope to a war-weary population.
“War is always a contest of wills, and morale is obviously intrinsically linked,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst. “This is definitely one consideration that it is really a signal to the West and to Ukrainian allies and partners that Ukraine is still capable of launching offensive operations, that Ukraine is capable of conducting fairly complex operations into enemy territory.”
Ukraine's allies will not read too much into this attack. Whatever Kyivv's endgame, it's not a major attack to seize large parts of Russia. It may signal a possible beginning to the long process of winding down the war and bringing Russia to the negotiating table.
“Ukraine is showing the world that the country is able to fight back,” one Western diplomat said. “This operation is perfect timing before the U.S. election to put this conflict back on the map," said one Western diplomat.
But if this incursion is mostly for show, Ukraine is taking an enormous risk. Military analysts point out that Ukraine would have had to pull thousands of troops from the Eastern front where Russia is making steady, if unspectacular gains.
Analysts have said Ukraine’s military could be maneuvering to divert Russian forces from other parts of the front line in eastern Ukraine. But Ukraine then also risks shifting more of its soldiers away from the tense defense there, and the quantity of reserves Russia uses to counter the assault on its territory may not outweigh the Ukrainian force committed. And if Ukraine indeed intends to hold and occupy this Russian territory for an extended period, that will also require a significant number of troops to stay put.
“It remains to be seen whether Russia is going to commit any resources at all from sectors on the Ukrainian front line to contain this assault,” Gady said. “There is some indication that Russia has already started fighting back with regular formations, but it’s unclear yet.”
Six months ago, Ukraine would not have invaded Russian territory largely because Biden was fearful that an incursion would force Putin to escalate, making the chance of a wider war more likely. But Ukraine can no longer be restrained given their deteriorating position on the battlefield, especially in the East.
Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh on Thursday, that this approval was apparently granted so long as the incursion wasn't too deep into Russian territory.
"As the dynamics have shifted on the battlefield, they've been able to actually push the Russians back further into Russian territory," she said. "As [Ukraine sees] attacks coming across the border, they have to be able to have the capabilities to respond. And so you're seeing some of these cross-border counter-fire measures."
Does Ukraine have anything to negotiate with if they withdraw? Russia is going to have to re-fortify the Kursk sector of the border but beyond that, the effect of the attack is more psychological than militarily significant.
Casualties on both sides during Kyivv's offensive are unknown but a video of a convoy of destroyed trucks by a Ukrainian HIMARs rocket system may have killed up to 400 soldiers according to pro-Russian milbloggers. Russia says almost 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and more than 100 armored vehicles destroyed.
It's surprising that Russia has not rushed reserve forces to confront the attack. Given the surprise Ukraine achieved in crossing the border, Moscow was apparently totally unprepared for the Ukrainian thrust.
