There is war and rumors of war in the Middle East as the rhetoric from both Israel and Iran continues to ratchet up tensions. Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has temporarily blown up ceasefire talks between the terrorists and Israel. Meanwhile, Israel exacted their pound of flesh from Hezbollah for the attack on the soccer field on the Syrian border that killed 12 children and teens. They blew up Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr, the man assumed to be responsible for the soccer field attack.
Iran has ordered a retaliatory attack on Israel, date and means to be determined. In April, following an Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascis that killed several high-ranking Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders, Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones at the Jewish state. Almost all of them were shot down by the unique alliance of Israel's Iron Dome defense system, U.S. Patriot Missiles, and assistance from Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
U.S. and Arab diplomats are trying to head off a retaliatory strike by Iran that won't force Israel to cross the line into an escalation that would mean war.
They may already be too late. An Iranian diplomat with direct knowledge of Iranian plans told the Wall Street Journal that attempts by the U.S. and their allies to convince Tehran not to escalate had been pointless. Israel had gone too far.
“There is no point. Israel crossed all the red lines,” the diplomat said. “Our response will be swift and heavy.”
The fact that Tehran is not even listening to entreaties to take a measured response is ominous. But what has red lights flashing in Jerusalem is the lack of signaling from Iran. “Less telegraphing means potential to misjudge the next step on the escalatory ladder,” said Andrew Tabler, a former Middle East director at the White House’s National Security Council.
This is the point of maximum danger where Joe Biden might misread the signs and stumble into a war. The U.S. is sending assets to Israel, including fighter jets, and several cruisers and destroyers. We already have an aircraft carrier group in the region. The may just be additional targets for Iranian missiles.
Biden may hate Netanyahu but if Iran crosses enough red lines, the U.S. would be obliged to go to war against Iran. I have no confidence that Joe Biden, or any of his advisors, could avoid a war if Iran or Hezbollah began hitting U.S. targets. It's going to depend on where Iran strikes and how many casualties they inflict.
Iranian's strike options include another massive barrage of missiles along with the launching of medium-range missiles by Hezbollah. This time, the attack may be spread out over several days.
In Israel, signs of war weariness are evident.
Iran and Hezbollah’s latest threats to retaliate have added another level of uncertainty to the persistent anxiety of the war. Israeli officials have urged residents to prepare food and water in fortified safe rooms. Paramedics conducted an emergency drill to practice in case of full-scale war. Medical centers in northern Israel prepared for the possibility that they might need to move patients into protected underground wards.
“The volume has been turned up to 11 from every side,” said Ofer Wasserman, 51, a resident of Tel Aviv.
The Journal reports that U.S. intelligence cis convinced the retaliatory strike will happen sometime over this weekend. Several foreign airlines have canceled flights to Israel, according to the Israel Airports Authority. This is not unusual. Air carriers also canceled flights last April before the Iranian attack.
Iran is still not prepared to incite a war with Israel. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be looking for an excuse to take a bite out of Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
According to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Iran is a week or two away from being able to create a workable nuclear weapon. No doubt Mossad's estimate is far more precise. There are several tempting targets that Israel might hit that would send a clear message to Tehran to back off nuclear weapons development.
But the immediate problem is trying to counter Iran's attack without getting the entire world involved in a war. In April, Netanyahu's response to the barrage of missiles and drones was very restrained. I doubt whether the Israeli prime minister would act so circumspectly this time.
