Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran with a precision strike on the residence where he was staying following the swearing-in of Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian.
A few hours earlier in Beirut, an Israeli air strike killed Hezbollah’s most senior military commander, Fu’ad Shukr, who it blamed for a deadly attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
The one-two punch has not only crippled Hamas, it has brought Israel and Iran to the brink of war.
In a statement carried by Iranian media, President Pezeshkian said Iran would “defend its territorial integrity, dignity, honor, and pride, and will make the terrorist occupiers regret their cowardly act.”
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vows “harsh punishment” for the assassination of Haniyeh.
“With this action, the criminal and terrorist Zionist regime prepared the ground for harsh punishment for itself, and we consider it our duty to seek revenge for his blood as he was martyred in the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he says in a statement carried by official news agency IRNA.
Is there any chance that Iran would try to make good on its bloodcurdling threats? Certainly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was well aware of the gamble he was taking. But wars are started through miscalculation as much as they are provocation. Netanyahu is banking on Iran not wanting a war with Israel, even with all its proxies and allies. Far more likely is an escalation in the "Shadow War" that Israel has been fighting with Iran for a decade
The reaction of other states in the region is worrisome. Syria says that the killing of Haniyeh could "set the region ablaze." Jordan condemned the strike, calling it “a violation of international law and international humanitarian law, and an escalatory crime that will push towards more tension and chaos in the region.”
China condemned the assassination as well.
The stage is set. The actors are in place. Will the curtain go up on another Middle Eastern war?
“We are on the verge of a large, large-scale escalation,” said Danny Citrinowicz, who served as head of the Iran branch for Israeli military intelligence and is now a fellow with the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies. “Iran is leading the axis, and they cannot protect one of the leaders of the axis coming for Pezeshkian’s inauguration.”
The strikes were a huge blow in prestige to Iran. It had gathered all the terrorists under its command to witness the inauguration of Pezeshkian, another so-called Iranian "reformer." The Wall Street Journal reports, "Representatives of Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Yemen’s Houthis and Lebanon’s Hezbollah all gathered in Tehran, where Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh hugged new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian amid chants of “Death to Israel.”
And Israel made Iran look weak and helpless to prevent an attack on its own soil.
Whether the killings this week will tip the balance is unclear. Israel is now bracing for responses both on its own territory and on Israeli and Jewish targets abroad, said former Israeli National Security Council head Yaakov Amidror. Iran in the past has targeted Israelis abroad and Hezbollah has targeted Jewish institutions internationally.
Iran may “try to find a weak point in the broader Israeli system, in Israel or abroad, and to use it against Israel,” Amidror said.
The strike that killed Fu’ad Shukr, the Hezbollah military commander that Israel believes was behind the attack on the soccer field in the border town of Majdal Shams that killed 12 children, was also a precision strike, although there were several civilian casualties, according to the Lebanese government.
Also known as al-Hajj Mohsin, the IDF said the terrorist commander “has directed Hezbollah’s attacks on the state of Israel since October 8, and he was the commander responsible for the murder of the 12 children in Majdal Shams in northern Israel on Saturday evening, as well as the killing of numerous Israelis and foreign nationals over the years.”
Israel can expect attacks on "soft targets" all over the world: community centers, diplomatic outposts, and places where Jews go to enjoy the arts and entertainment. Innocent Israelis are on the firing line, which is something they've unfortunately been forced to get used to.
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