Betting books are divided on the question of whether or not Joe Biden will remain the Democratic candidate for president until election day.
The prediction site Polymarket gives Biden a 42% chance of dropping out of the presidential race before election day. But Polymarket also shows a 3% chance that Biden will drop out before July 12.
The markets are all over the map.
"The market currently prices President Biden in the lead for becoming the Democratic nominee, with a 14c bump just today," PredictIt public relations director Lindsey Singer told FOX Business. "But these numbers follow days of considerable action and price shifting – including the addition of several new potential candidates."
Several prediction websites posted data on X, including Polymarket, which showed that as of July 7, Biden has a 65% chance to be named the Democratic nominee.
In comparison, the post from InteractivePolls showed that as of July 4, Biden had a 35 percent chance of being named the nominee, which signaled an increase of 42 points from July 4 to July 7.
The data also shows that Vice President Kamala Harris's chances of being named the Democratic nominee declined from July 4 to July 7. On July 4, Harris had a 51 percent chance to be named the nominee, while on July 7, her chances dropped to 23 percent.
The data comes amid ongoing questions about Biden's second campaign for the White House following his performance in the presidential debate against former President Donald Trump. Biden, who has faced concerns about his age, encountered a wave of criticism following his debate performance. Viewers noted that the 81-year-old sounded hoarse and lacked energy.
Tim Williams, director of public relations for BetUS.com, told Fox Business that betting on whether or not Biden will stay in the race is one of the more popular lines on the site. "The lion’s share of wagers are actually coming in on the ‘yes’ (he will withdraw from the race) option," Williams told FOX Business. "We’re talking about 80% of wagers give or take so far."
The amateurs are betting on Biden to drop out while the professional oddsmakers believe it's a better-than-even bet that Biden stays in the race.
Who's right?
It's very hard to convince a politician as successful as Joe Biden that his career is over. He has overcome big odds to get to the top. Everyone was counting him out in the 2020 campaign after he lost Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. But he strapped on his armor and, with another old warhorse, Rep. James Clyburn, stumped through the state of South Carolina and won.
He's been down before. Men like him do not give up until they are virtually carried off the field. The professional bettors know this, which is why they aren't paying much attention to the chaff coming from other politicians and talking heads.
Related: Only One Person Can Convince Biden to Drop Out
At this point, only Biden's wife Jill can show him the reality of his position and get him to concede his campaign is over. But on the outside, she appears to be "all in" for her husband. And with a staff still willing to hide his condition from the American people and a media still so antagonistic toward Trump that they will do anything to keep him out of the White House, Biden will coast to election day and hope for the best.
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