It's almost like some macabre dance as both Israel and Iran have given "muted responses" to Israel's attack on Iran, according to the New York Times. Paula covered the breaking story last night that, at first blush, hardly seems to be earth-shattering news.
The Israeli counterstrike occurred on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's 85th birthday.
Happy Birthday, #AyotollahKhameini. April 19, 1939. 85 years old. #JoeBiden, 81, won’t be giving him a Happy Birthday call. If you think #Biden is out of it, what about #Khameini? Talk about living in a bubble. pic.twitter.com/LteOVpuEZw
— MICHAEL WARDER (@MICHAELWAR50195) April 19, 2024
It's all about sending a message, of course, and Israel sent a big one. The strike hit an Iranian air base near the city of Isfahan. The air base purportedly houses a special security detachment that guards the nearby underground nuclear enrichment facility at Nantanz. The province is also home to three Chinese-made nuclear reactors and is the center of long-range missile production in Iran.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was simply telling the birthday boy, "We know what's valuable to you and can bomb it any time."
“Israel can do elegant military maneuvers that are not noisy or cause significant military damage but which deliver the message Israel wants,” said Dana Weiss, a diplomatic affairs analyst for Israel’s Channel 12. “And that is what we have seen them do.”
Message received.
Netanyahu had very little choice. He couldn't risk starting another war when he's already got two wars on his hands in Gaza and against Hezbollah. Starting a war with Iran would be unwise at this time.
The Iranian officials said that the attack on Friday was carried out by small drones, possibly launched from inside Iran. They said that a separate group of small drones was shot down in the Tabriz region, roughly 500 miles north of Isfahan. Iranian news agencies reported that nuclear facilities in Isfahan had not been hit.
President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran had warned that “the tiniest act of aggression” on his country’s soil would draw a response. But in the hours after Israel’s strike, there have been no public calls for retribution by Iranian officials.
Israel informed the U.S. of the strike "shortly before" it went off. It was hardly necessary. The Pentagon had been expecting some kind of attack so any warning would have been superfluous.
The key question being asked in Washington and in other capitals around the world: Is this it? Is this all there is?
Joe Biden will breathe a sigh of relief if it is. Biden's worst fear is that the current crisis would escalate beyond control and start a regional or even world war. This was a real possibility as Netanyahu's reported initial reaction was to launch a massive counterstrike within hours of Iran's attack.
The White House says that Biden talked the Israeli prime minister out of immediately retaliating. I believe it far more likely that cooler heads in the Israeli war cabinet prevailed. Netanyahu doesn't like Biden and having the old man preach to him about his responsibilities probably went over like a lead balloon.
That day may yet come when Israel and Iran will fight, as no one is saying that Israel is done with Iran. With Tehran so close to a nuclear breakout (if they haven't already crossed the nuclear threshold), any hint that Iran could build a nuclear weapon would almost certainly lead to an Israeli attempt to destroy their nuclear infrastructure.
That war would be difficult to contain.
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