What Are Iran's Ambitions and How Does Its Alliance With Russia Fit Into Them?

The Jerusalem Post reports that weapons are pouring into the West Bank from Iran. “The political aim of this plan is to thwart the Saudi-American project of normalization with Israel," according to MEMRI.

For this project to be successful, Iran will need both Russia and China to supply the arms and give some diplomatic cover to Tehran. This is being made possible by the growing alliance of North Korea, Iran, Russia, China, and various pro-Iranian militia groups like the Houthis.  

Those anti-democratic states are growing in military strength while the pro-U.S. alliance of Japan,  Europe, and North America is mostly in decline when it comes to military power.

The fact that Russia and China are now virtually joined at the hip is the most worrisome development. “China and Russia are pursuing the joint development of helicopters, conventional attack submarines, missiles, and missile-launch early warning systems,” Hal Brands of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies recently wrote.

Iran and North Korea have resumed their cooperative efforts to develop missile technology. And with Iran within weeks of building a nuclear bomb (if they haven't already passed the nuclear threshold), the marriage of ICBMs to bombs moves ever closer to reality. 

In addition to targeting Israel with drones, the Houthi rebels of Yemen have come out strongly in support of Russia in their war with Ukraine. The New York Times reports, "The Houthis have praised Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a global turning point. Ali al-Qahoum, a Houthi leader, said that the invasion had weakened 'unipolarity' — a reference to American power — and promoted 'multipolarity.'”

Meanwhile, the U.S. is bogged down in Ukraine. NATO and the rest of Europe are not prepared if Russia decides to go to war with the U.S. and the West:

Al-Qahoum’s line underscores the larger goal of the China-led alliance. Above all, it wants to reduce American influence and allow regional powers to assert their will. China might then be able to take over Taiwan. Russia could again dominate parts of Eastern Europe. Iran could contest Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally, for sway over the Middle East. (These Times maps, by Alissa Rubin and Lazaro Gamio, explain Iran’s ambitions.)

The countries in the anti-U.S. alliance, Brands wrote, aim “to reorder their regions and, thereby, reorder the world.” As Fumio Kishida, Japan’s prime minister, told Congress yesterday during a visit to Washington, “The international order that the U.S. worked for generations to build is facing new challenges, challenges from those with values and principles very different from ours.”

Imagine Iran holding sway in the Middle East backed by Russia and China. Imagine China rolling over Taiwan and Southeast Asia. Imagine Russia finishing with Ukraine and eyeing some of its former satellites. 

Too outrageous? This is what the world might look like without an America committed to maintaining the peace. 

These nations aren't in it for the short term. They're playing the long game. Unencumbered by Western electoral politics, the authoritarians can create their own timetable, their own plans to thwart the U.S. pax Americana to achieve their own national goals.

"The regime in Iran has never concealed its aims and aspirations: to have the Iranian Islamic Revolution take over the region, to bring down the West-facing moderate Arab Sunni regimes by 'exporting the revolution,' and to eliminate Israel, the 'Little Satan' and the 'cancerous growth,' and liberate Jerusalem from it," reports MEMRI.

From Armenia and Azerbaijan to Southeast Asia and beyond, America's allies are under threat from the designs of authoritarian regimes. The dictatorships aren't going anywhere.

Can we say the same about the U.S.?