The No Labels organization will hold a virtual convention on Friday, and the number one question to be decided is will the group field a presidential ticket.
For more than a year, No Labels has been saying that it won't field a presidential ticket if it has no chance of winning. In other words, the No Labels leadership tried to assure Democrats that it wasn't going to play the spoiler and elect Donald Trump at the expense of Joe Biden.
If you believe that, I have a draw bridge over the Chicago River I'd like to see you.
“This meeting is a chance for our delegates to speak freely and honestly about the path ahead for our 2024 project,” No Labels chief strategist, Ryan Clancy tells the New York Sun. “Candidates will not be chosen for the Unity ticket during this meeting and it will not be open to the press.”
The No Labels organization is a political party in search of a candidate. One by one, viable presidential candidates have made it clear they won't run on the No Labels ticket.
Retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) teased a No Labels run for president for months but finally removed his name from consideration in February. Larry Hogan, the popular former governor of Maryland who was on many No Labels shortlists, decided to run for the Senate.
No Labels also considered Nikki Haley, but she declined. It's clear that no prominent politician from either party wants to commit political suicide and join a third-party effort.
No Labels recently formed a Super PAC whose goal is to raise $300 million. That's a large chunk of change to have with no one to spend it on. The group is going to run a candidate. Who it will be and which party it will represent is yet to be determined.
“They’re going to do whatever they can to keep their label alive,” says Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf.
“They’re going to do whatever they can to keep their label alive,” he adds. “Not doing it would be admitting defeat. It would also be telling their funders that they wasted their money, and those heavily engaged would never do that.”
“At best they will injure Joe Biden. At worst, they will help elect Donald Trump,” Sheinkopf says.
That's the conundrum for No Labels. It can't possibly win. It may only qualify for 30-35 state ballots at most. So it has to decide which candidate it wants to hurt the most. And since many of the No Labels leaders are NeverTrumpers, its preference is for choosing candidates who would take votes away from the former president.
That simply might not be possible. So the Democrats have sent a letter to No Labels leadership begging them not to play the "spoiler" and elect Donald Trump by signing a "no spoiler pledge."
“By voting to sign the No Spoiler Pledge, you will commit No Labels to not be a spoiler in this pivotal election for our democracy by returning Donald Trump to the White House,” the letter says. “If by July 1, No Labels and/or its ticket has not qualified to be on the ballots in enough states to have a mathematical chance to win 270 electoral votes and is not competitive in five or more states, No Labels commits to withdrawing its candidate from the ballots in the swing states that will decide the election.”
If that sounds like a desperate plea for No Labels to rescue the Democrats, you'd be right.
The group seems unconcerned. And its PAC is already busy trying to raise the $300 million to get on the ballot in more than enough states to win the election — at least in theory.
"For this ticket to win, we need the many Americans who support this ticket to show their financial support, the same way Democrats and Republicans donate to their political parties regularly," Rob Stutzman, a senior adviser for the super PAC, wrote to potential donors.
"By becoming a founding donor, you will allow the Unity Ticket to know that they will have the resources to compete and reach voters directly," he said in an email shared with Axios. They asking for $3 donations.
The group will also include a traditional Super PAC, which can take unlimited — and anonymous — contributions to blanket airwaves across the country.
Without a recognizable candidate, No Labels is going to have to spend most of its cash on building name recognition. That's why I think donors will mostly ignore No Labels and the group will come up far short of its $300 million goal.
Biden probably has a lot more to fear from other third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy and the Green Party's Jill Stein than a group like No Labels, which can't stop spinning its wheels.
