It's snowing in much of the Midwest this weekend. After the blizzard, temperatures are expected to drop into single digits with wind chills at -30 to -40 below.
Iowa has already seen record snowfall and falling temperatures have added an unpredictability to the caucuses. Not the kind of unpredictability that would cost Trump a first-place finish. But everything from Trump's margin of victory to the second and third-place finishers is up in the air.
Many Iowa Caucus-goers are elderly. Many live a considerable distance from the caucus site. And then there's the enthusiasm factor; just how eager are Iowans who support Trump, DeSantis, or Haley to go out in sub-zero weather, show up at a caucus site, and spend two or three hours standing around when there's little or no doubt about the outcome?
Iowans are a hearty folk but asking them to suffer this kind of discomfort for their candidate may be asking a bit too much.
Campaigns, candidates and strategists have speculated how much the winter weather will have an impact — with some estimating it could undermine Trump, who caucus-goers might feel complacent will win anyway. Others say it would hurt DeSantis or Haley, who trail behind Trump in Iowa polls by a wide double-digit margin. Each candidate has argued their supporters are passionate enough to leave the warmth and safety of their homes to drive to their precinct, stand in line, listen to speeches, submit their paper ballot and watch the tally. But unlike a primary election, where voters can show up and cast their ballot throughout the day, caucus-goers must vote at a specific location and time in the evening. And the reality is no one is certain as this caucus day’s weather is unlike anything Iowans have experienced in recent history.
The Iowa GOP had been predicting a record turnout. At some caucus sites, reporters and media personnel might outnumber caucus-goers.
“This is probably the worst weather you can have for a caucus,” said longtime Iowa Republican strategist Craig Robinson. He estimated that Trump supporters could stay home if they don’t think their support will make much of a difference. “This has the possibility to really hamper turnout. So, I don’t know. Frankly, I can’t remember a caucus that’s been like this.”
But ultimately no matter how cold it gets, Iowans have seen it before.
Iowa GOP spokesman Kush Desai said on Friday that the party was asking caucus-goers to leave early for the event, “but ultimately Iowans are well acclimated to Midwest winters and understand what’s at stake for our country.”
On a night like Monday, organizational strength becomes even more crucial. Getting supporters to the caucuses will almost certainly make a difference between second and third place. Who's got the muscle to get supporters to the precinct?
In the end, whichever candidate finishes second or third will blame their finish on the weather. And if Trump doesn't meet expectations, he, too, will play the bad weather card.
So Iowa is not going to be a true test of organizational strength. But it hardly matters because Trump is going to win anyway.
Snow won't stop Iowans from caucusing for Trump! 👍🇺🇸#IowaCaucus #Trump2024 #Iowa pic.twitter.com/ze430rzP4g
— ⚓🇺🇸 Jim Williams 🇺🇸⚓ (@JimWill_KAG) January 13, 2024
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