Democrats are still challenging congressional district maps nearly four years after they were drawn, hoping that the next court-ordered maps will favor them over Republicans. It looks like they will succeed in New York but fail in North Carolina. The state Democratic legislature will eventually draw the map which will take at least four Republican seats and give them to Democrats
In North Carolina, three Democratic seats have been gerrymandered into extinction. The upshot from all this maneuvering is that it's a wash and neither party gains more than one or two seats.
There are 28 Democrats who have already announced their retirement while only 14 Republicans have done so. With a dozen or more retirements expected after the holidays, members have a chance to talk to their families and weigh their options before filing deadlines.
You would think that with a dysfunctional Congress, there would be a lot more members looking to escape. But that's not the case this cycle.
“Members sort of knew that this is what the institution is currently like when they chose to run for office,” said a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, Molly Reynolds.
“Some of them may well be feeling frustrated at this point in time, but anybody who has been elected to Congress in recent years, they’re not surprised at what they’re finding when they are getting to Washington,” Ms. Reynolds said.
Aside from the involuntary exit of George Santos, most Republican retirements are in non-competitive districts that a GOP candidate should have no problem keeping.
The Democrats are a different story.
Representatives Katie Porter of California, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia proved they could win toss-up congressional districts in good election cycles for Democrats and not-so-good cycles. They are all seeking higher office within their home states. Ms. Porter and Ms. Slotkin are running for the U.S. Senate. Ms. Spanberger is running for governor in 2025.
Democrats are also losing a six-term representative, Dan Kildee of Michigan, to retirement, leaving them with another competitive open seat to defend in a state that will be crucial in the presidential election. Representative Jennifer Wexton is not seeking reelection due to health challenges in a district that leans Democratic but is more competitive than most.
“Retirements are a huge problem for the Democrats. They’re not a problem for us,” Rep. Richard Hudson, the chairman of the House Republican campaign arm said.
The exception is the seat formerly held by George Santos. The primary Democratic challenger will be the former Congressman Tom Suozzi, who retired to run for governor and now wants his old seat back.
“Politically, I think we’re very well positioned for 2024,” said Rep.Tom Cole, an Oklahoma Republican. “I just think the margins are going to remain narrow no matter who wins. The number of competitive seats is so much lower than it was even a decade ago, the polarization is so much greater, that it’s hard to move big numbers."
"Whoever wins the presidency probably wins the House,” said Cole.
Republicans desperately need to increase their majority. And judging by the number of retirements, they have a good chance of doing so.
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